The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Yemi Cardoso, has projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation will moderate to 21.4 per cent in 2024.
Cardoso projected the fall during his keynote speech at the launching of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) macroeconomic outlook report for 2024 on Wednesday.
Addressing the issue of inflation surge, the apex governor said, “Inflationary pressures are expected to decline in 2024 due to the CBN’s inflation-targeting policy, which aims to rein in inflation to 21.4 per cent.”
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THE WHISTLER reported that the country’s inflation in the year 2023 maintained a 12th consecutive surge to 28.9 per cent in December 2023, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The CBN boss said hinged the expect decline in inflation on the improved agricultural output and ease in global supply chain.
Cardoso said, “The agriculture sector is expected to grow at a faster pace due to improved productivity and efficiency resulting from the projected decline in inflation, access to finance and infrastructure investments.
“This will be aided by improved agricultural productivity and the easing of global supply chain pressures, benefiting businesses by boosting consumer confidence and purchasing power.”
But the country has been plagued with the rise in insecurity particularly in the north, which is Nigeria’s agricultural hub.
According to the Nigeria Situation Report, Yobe and Borno state has recorded scores of farmers killed by insurgents through explosive devices, heightened criminality and farmers/herders’ clashes.
Experts have said that insecurity may worsen Nigeria food inflation if not well managed.
Food inflation in December 2023 stood at 33.93 per cent which was 10.18 per cent points higher compared to the 23.75 per cent recorded in December 2022.
Cardoso said, “Inflation-targeting framework involves clear communication, use of monetary policy instruments, and collaboration with fiscal authorities to achieve price stability, fostering market confidence and positively influencing consumer behaviour.
“The outlook for decreasing inflation in 2024 will have a profound impact on businesses, providing a more predictable cost environment and potentially leading to lowered policy rates, stimulating investment, fueling growth, and creating job ty, positive market confidence, and positively influencing consumer behaviour.”
Muda Yusuf, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprises had told THE WHISTLER that inflationary pressure will not abate in the medium term.
Yusuf said if all policies are sustained, inflation may moderate in the medium to long term.