Buhari Vs. Atiku: The Economist, U.S Institute Make Conflicting Predictions On Who Wins Presidential Poll

For the third time, The Economist Magazine has predicted that the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Atiku Abubakar, will defeat President Muhammadu Buhari in the February 16 presidential election.

The magazine had similarly predicted in 2015 that President Buhari would defeat the then President Goodluck Jonathan.

The latest prediction makes it the third time The Economist would predict Atiku’s victory against Buhari at the upcoming polls.

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research unit of The Economist Magazine, said the PDP presidential candidate will triumph over Buhari even though the election will be competitive.

“#NigeriaDecides2019: Less than 2 weeks before #Nigeria‘s presidential election. Abubakar has floated idea of corruption amnesty. It is arguably an impolitic time for such a delicate proposal,” the Economist Intelligence Unit Africa said in a tweet.

“Abubakar is hard-pressed to convince voters that he is a clean politician, having been on the receiving end of numerous graft allegations in the past. We retain out forecast for #Abubakar to win, but expected margin of victory is narrowing as the poll approaches,” it said.

The EIU’s prediction however contradicts the prediction made sometime in November 2018 by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) which predicted that Atiku is less likely to defeat President Buhari at the poll.

The USIP, which based its prediction on surveys it carried out on Nigerians, said: “Many Nigerians feel their hopes have not been met. Some respondents suggest the electorate is sufficiently disappointed that voter apathy will be greater in 2019 than in 2015, with the unifying narrative of change that helped elect the APC in 2015 much less compelling as a factor in mobilizing the electorate, and perceptions that another defeat of the presidential incumbent is less likely to happen in 2019.”