‘Confusion’ In Katsina Over Buhari Winning State For Tinubu

Can Buhari retain Katsina State for the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC?

That’s the question on the lips of political watchers and members of the APC.

The president has won his home State, Katsina, in every federal election he stood as a presidential candidate.

Interestingly, however is the fact that, while he had won federal election in the state, he never won state elections for his party until the sweeping victory of the APC in 2015.

Before 2015 , Katsina had been under the control of state governors produced by the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

In the 2015 election, Katsina State contributed a whopping 1,345,441 votes for Buhari to trump the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, who secured 98,937 votes in the state.

The APC’s expectation has been that retaining the state whose current total vote stands at 3,519,260 was not negotiable.

Party leaders at both the state and national levels have stated that winning Katsina, one of the ‘KKK’ (Katsina, Kano and Kaduna) States would draw the party closer to victory.

The party also controls the other two states, Kaduna and Kano.

But recent happenings have cast a gloomy picture on the prospect of that APC expected victory.

Katsina has been under serious bandits and terrorists attacks that have rendered many homeless, properties destroyed and many deaths.

The populace has complained of hardship being experienced from shutting down the borders accusing the president of neglect and of failing his (own) people.

The deplorable situation led to the reported stoning of the president a few weeks ago when he was on a working visit to the state.

There are fears that such an open expression of dissent and hostility could affect the electoral fortunes of the party in the state.

More worrisome however at the grassroots is the increasing number of defections of APC members who built their political profile from their alignment with Buhari.

Over the weekend, three House of Representatives members from the state defected to the PDP.

The APC representatives were Hamza Dalhatu (Rimi/Charanci/Batagarawa constituency), Salisu Iro (Katsina constituency) and Ahmad Dayyabu (Danmusa/Batsari/Safana constituency).

Two major businessmen and financiers of the APC in the state, who are owners of NAK Enterprises, Bilyaminu Funtua and Kabir Kabir – Bilya also joined the PDP.

In June 2022, three other House of Representatives members from the state also defected to the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) after the primary elections.

The legislators, Ibrahim Babangida (Malumfashi/Kafur constituency), Armaya’u Kado (Dutsin Ma/Kurfi constituency) and Aminu Ashiru (Mani/Bindawa constituency), alleged irregularities in the conduct of the party’s primaries.

President Buhari’s nephew, Fatuhu Muhammad from Daura/Sandamu/Mai’Adua constituency also left the party after he accused some of the president’s top aides of sabotaging his efforts to retain the party’s ticket.

The largest defection was seen in December when the PDP staged its presidential campaign rally in the state as it reportedly witnessed over 83,000 APC members joining it.

While 23,000 reportedly decamped from Funtua zone and another 19,000 defected from Daura Zone, the president’s Constituency, 49,000 members defected from Katsina zone.

The leaders of the decampees – Alhaji Baba Yale Yaro from Funtua zone, Alhaji Aminu Lawal Mani from Katsina zone, and former Secretary to the Government of Katsina State under Governor Aminu Bello Masari, Mustapha Inuwa – were known as grassroots mobilisers and close political associates of the president.

With the president’s reported lack of commitment to the campaign of the party, there are fears the APC may lose the huge votes in the February election to the opposition parties.

But Samaila Ame, former state Chairman Of Rebuild Nigeria Party and political Strategist, does not think any one holds the aces in the state ahead of the 2023 presidential election.

He told THE WHISTLER that the APC’s challenges are not different from the major opposition party, the PDP.

“On one hand is the belief that power should return to the South as most Katsina politicians think. On the other hand is the belief that the APC has failed at all levels in all things and should not be allowed to retain power.

“It’s a state of confusion. There is also the belief that Kwankwaso (Musa) of the ANPP does not have the structure to win. The same feeling is with Obi (Peter) of the Labour Party.

“There is a state of confusion in the state. Buhari has little control over things because he has failed. Would he be able to retain the state for the APC? I can’t tell because it can swing to anyone.”

But Mannir Garwa, former State Chairman of the defunct Alliance for Democracy, AD, and member APC Elders, Katsina State chapter, does not share Ame’s views.

Rather, he is of the opinion that Buhari can retain the state for Tinubu even though he cited insecurity and economic hardship as serious challenges to sell the presidential candidate to the people.

“Buhari can win but it needs very hard work because there are certain things that have ruined the lives of the common people in Katsina State,” Garwa said.

According to him, “This insecurity issue. There are local governments that you cannot enter like Faskari, Kankara, Batsari, Safana, Jibia, Danmusa, Sabuwa, Dandume, Dutsinma, Kurfi, Batagarawa, Rimi, Danja, Kafur, Matazu, Kankia and Malumfashi others.

“Secondly, Mr President has closed the border for so many years. This has created serious hardship and lack of income for the people.

“You know we in Katsina State depend on trade with Niger people through the border.

“There are a lot of issues but let me tell you the fact, APC is still in control.

“Hopefully Bola Tinubu will win this election but slightly.

“One factor is that the APC governorship candidate, Dikko Umar Radda is far better than that of the PDP, Senator Yakubu Lado. He is better academically and morally. The people love him.

“So, the people will vote for Bola Tinubu because of him. Hopefully Mr President can win Katsina State for Tinubu,” he said.

But Sani Ali, a former member of the Rebuild Nigeria Party and grassroots mobilisers for the PDP said, “You can see the decampees, they are top politicians, who have joined us.

“We will win, PDP will win Katsina State because president Buhari has failed. We are working very hard for that and you will see the result in February.

“Don’t worry yourself. If anyone tells you PDP will not win the state, it is a lie. APC has failed. We are on the ground to win the election,” he said.