INSECURITY: FG Claims ‘The Worst Is Over’ But Here’s What Data, Analysts Say

The Federal Government has claimed that the military had “substantially restored security across the nation”, adding that “the worst is over.”

Minister of Information, Lai Mohammed, made the claim at a joint press conference with security agencies on September 5, 2022.

“We are therefore not saying the battle is over. No. What we are saying is that our military and other security agents have been able to contain the daunting security challenges we face and that the worst is indeed over,” he had said.

However, data collated from Beacon Intelligence, a website that keeps tabs on security incidents across the country, tells a different story.

Data collated from the website capturing security incidents between January and August this year showed that at least 8,153 people were killed across the country while no fewer than 4,262 persons were abducted within the period.

The casualty figures were recorded after at least 3,463 incidents of terrorists/bandits’ attacks. In addition, 1,722 people were recorded to have sustained various degrees across the country.

However, a month-to-month analysis revealed a decline in fatalities since January. The highest fatalities were recorded in March and August with a 69 per cent and 49.1 per cent increase respectively from the preceding months.

In August, a total of 599 incidents led to the killing of 859 killings and 380 abductions. The data showed a decline of 27 per cent in abduction from July when 525 people were reportedly abducted.

There was, however, an increase in kidnap cases in June which recorded the abduction of 651 persons by terrorists.

Year-To-Year Analysis

Checks by THE WHISTLER revealed that the country had witnessed an increase in insecurity when evaluated on a year-to-year scale.

In 2021, a total of 3,484 people were abducted by end of August, while the figure increased to 4,262 in the same period in 2022, indicating a 22.3 per cent increase.

Also, within the same period in 2021, a total of 6,453 people were killed while the fatalities increased to 8,153 by 2022, showing a 26 per cent increase.

Thus, insecurity incidents skyrocketed from 1,601 in 2021 to 3,463 in 2022, showing over a 100 per cent increase.

Analysts Speak

Security expert, Kabir Adamu, told THE WHISTLER that it’s not correct to claim that the worst is over in terms of insecurity when there is a 20 per cent increase in cases of attacks from 2012-2022.

He said that insecurity has to scale down to its lowest to be adjudged as declining.

Although recent offensive operations against terrorists in the North East and North West have been at their zenith with top commanders dropping dead due to military airstrikes.

Over 200 terrorists have been eliminated in several military operations in the North in September alone, although not less than 169 people were reportedly abducted from September 1-4, before the FG made the claim.

Beacon Intelligence website also reported that 483 fatalities were recorded in the first four days of September.

While acknowledging the effort of the military in taking the battle to the terrorists, Adamu said the operations were not sustainable.

“We are extremely concerned because the right things that should have been done to allow sustainability are not being done. What we are seeing can be described as a cosmetic treatment, such as, we have a situation where the military is being asked to conduct operation and it is successful, but the real efforts that should deny these groups from growing are not being done,” Adamu said.

Adamu described the situation as “not good enough” and something no one “should brag about”. He added, “It is still worrisome and we hope that the number can be brought to less than 10 or less than 100, but for now we haven’t reached the promised land.”

The slight reduction in cases of bandits’ attacks witnessed since April has been attributed to rain.

Yusuf Anka, another security analyst, said despite the military offensive against bandits, it is expected that insecurity would decline during the rainy season. This, however, does not mean the terrorists would not stage a comeback after the rains.

Anka said, “when the raining season ends there will be a lot of displacement but attacks may take a while before they occur”.

He noted that aside from the “rainy season being the biggest factor” there has also been an increase in “non-kinetic approaches” whereby the FG, alongside offensive operations, is negotiating with reasonable leaders of terrorists to embrace peace.

Adamu also predicted more terrorist activities in the coming months. According to him, the military as well as other security operatives haven’t done enough to sustain their efforts against insurgents.

He said, “The military and the police have carried out significant operations and they have been able to kill several of these bandits and terrorists’ leaders but these terrorists still retain the capabilities and abilities to carry out attacks and that is why over 800 people were killed in August”.

He noted that the military should “block their (terrorists’) funding capability to acquire new weapons and deny them space to operate”. Adamu added that the military should consciously dominate ungoverned spaces where they harbour to perpetrate their act.

He also called for a sustainability approach such as decentralising the security system, especially the police.

“We need to decentralize security so that even in the rural areas we will see a huge presence of security personnel and the best way is to incorporate the state security and it is only when we do that, that we will be able to reduce the capacity of these non-state actors.”