If there is one northern politician that may pose the greatest challenge to the 2019 presidential ambition of President Muhuammadu Buhari, that politician will most likely be the erstwhile Kano state governor and founder of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
In the eyes of many political observers, only Senator Kwankwaso has what it takes to defeat a Buhari who has some of the most intimidating political base in the country. Kwankwaso himself alluded to this when he said a few days ago that “I believe it is only Kwankwaso that can bring this [the 2019 Presidency] to the table in all the states of the federation.”
The Senator, who represents Kano Central Senatorial district in the National Assembly, stated this during his visit on Monday to Benin, the Edo State capital, where he was welcomed by à mammoth crowd at the Benin Airport. The federal lawmaker had visited the state as part of his ongoing nationwide consultation regarding his 209 presidential ambition.
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The former governor said he remains the most suitable at the moment in terms of geo-political zone, to defeat President Buhari in 2019 among other presidential candidates such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo, ex-governors Sule Lamido, Ahmed Makarfi and others who are hoping to clinch the presidential primary ticket of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
He told some PDP delegates during his to visit Benin: “If you are selecting a candidate, you have to, under these circumstances, look at the geography, history and population of the country. It is a common knowledge, based on previous census, that Kano State is the most populous state and North-West is the most populous region in the country.
“So, if it is true that our former party [the All Progressives Congress, APC] is fielding a candidate from the North-West, it is also necessary for the PDP to consider fielding its candidate from the zone. I have no doubt in my mind that the South-South and South-East are very solid in the PDP. I believe that what we will do in the North with what will come out in the South-West, I have no doubt that PDP will be victorious in the 2019 presidential election.
“Everyone can contest to get the party’s ticket and getting it is one thing, but the most important thing is winning the election. I am better qualified for the ticket. I am in the PDP to add value and I believe it is only Kwankwaso that can bring this to table in all the states of the federation,” he said.
– Kwankwaso’s Strength –
By many indications, Senator Kwankwaso seems the only candidate that can defeat President Buhari in the next presidential election, but by throwing his hat in the ring, there is the tendency that the federal lawmaker will ruffle some feathers both within the ruling APC and main opposition PDP.
Some northern political bigwigs who spoke to THE WHISTLER on the condition of anonymity described Kwankwa as “the guy” to root for if the PDP must unseat Buhari in 2019. One of the multiple sources who spoke to this medium agreed with the governor’s analysis that when picking a presidential candidate, any serious opposition party must consider the geography and population of the state that their candidate will be selected from, adding that such candidate should be able to command as much mass appeal as the president, especially in the North Western geopolitical zone of the country.
“There is no gainsaying that Kwankwaso is the guy when assessing which candidate can give Buhari trouble in the North. He comes from the same North West as the president and equally commands a lot of followership,” a northern senator admitted.
The serving senator said Kwankwaso is still very strong politically in Kano state such that, “the people are more likely to vote any candidate Kwankwaso presents for governorship in the next elections.”
There are also indications that Senator Kwankwoso has his roots in all the northern states including Taraba. The ‘Kwankwasiya Movement’ he founded is said to be very active in all states of the North and is gradually spreading to the North Central zone and some other regions. In fact, reports had emerged that the “Red Cap” which symbolises the political movement were shared among some worshipers at the Eid-praying ground in Ilorin, Kwara State on Tuesday. So, in the minds of many, the former Kano State governor seems the best shot for the PDP if the opposition party must defeat President Buhari in 2019.
As of January 2018, the North-West geopolitical zone had the highest number of registered voters in the country with a total of 18,505,984 voters. The South West comes second with a total of 14, 626, 800 registered voters. The South-South and North Central had 11, 101, 093 and 10, 586, 965 registered voters respectively. While North East and South East had 9, 929, 015 and 8, 293, 093 registered voters respectively.
The high number of registered voters in the North-West again serves as a plus for Kwankwaso, even as Kano state comes second after Lagos with 5,149,070 registered voters.
Katsina where President Buhari hails from had 2, 827, 943.
Adamawa where Atiku is from had 1, 559, 012 registered voters while Jigawa where Lamido is from had 1, 831, 276.
Gombe where Dankwambo is from had 1, 120, 023 registered voters.
Senate Presdent, Dr Bukola Saraki’s Kwara state had 1, 142, 267, registered voters.
It is worthy of note that during the presidential primary election of the APC in 2014, Senator Kwankwaso had defeated Atiku by polling 974 votes against Atiku’s 954 votes to emerge second behind President Buhari who won with 3, 430 votes.
– Educational Background –
When compared to Atiku who seems his biggest rival in the PDP, Kwankwaso appears to be more educated than the former Vice President. While Atiku holds a Grade Three WASC/GCE Certificate, a Diploma from the School of Hygiene in Kano and a Law Diploma from the Ahmadu Bello University Institute of Administration, Kwankwaso has however done postgraduate studies at the Middlesex Polytechnic and obtained master’s degree in Water Engineering at the Loughborough University of Technology in the United Kingdom.
– Political Experience –
Coupled with these, Kwankwaso has held more political offices than most current PDP presidential aspirants. He’s served as two-time governor of Kano State, Minister of Defence under the civilian government of former President Olusegun Obasanjo and he is the current federal lawmaker representing Kano Central Senatorial district in the National Assembly. So, some political pundits see Kwankwaso as someone whose experience as ex-minister of defence can come to play in solving the security challenges presently facing the country. Also, Kwankwoso and ex-governor Lamido of Jigawa State are the two presidential candidates that are likely to get the endorsement of President Obasanjo in the 2019 election. But because the former Kano governor is more educated than Lamido, he may stand a better chance of getting the blessing of the former president.
Atiku on the flip side may never get Obasanjo’s endorsement as the former president had on countless occasions voiced his objection to the presidency of his former Vice. “If I support Atiku for anything, God will not forgive me. If I do not know, yes. But once I know, Atiku can never enjoy my support,” Obasanjo had said of the former Vice President, adding that “It is not a question of working with or not working with an individual. If you are working for the good of Nigeria, I am working with you. If you are not working for the good of Nigeria, it does not matter who you are, I am not working with you.”
– The Minus For Kwankwaso –
While the many factors as earlier mentioned are in favour of Kwanwaso, whether or not the Senator will be able to restfully get the acceptance of the South West, South East and South South seems to be his major minus as a presidential candidate. There are indications that the people of the South South in particular may not forget in a hurry the role he plaid in kicking against former President Goodluck Jonathan’s re-election in 2015. The former Kano governor was one of the most vocal political voices from the North who spoke against Jonathan’s re-election.
Besides these shortcomings, Senator Kwankwaso by many indications seem the only PDP presidential candidate than can stand tall against President Buhari at the poll. In fact, a source in the APC who asked to be quoted off-record told this platform that, “He [Kwankwaso] is about the only candidate among all the presidential candidates of the PDP that we dread. His dominance of Kano politics calls for concern, coupled with the fact that he is also a political strategist.”