Will Russia Fail In Ukraine?

It’s more than a month since the Russian military forces invaded Ukraine thereby igniting a war resulting in humanitarian and economic crisis that is now reshaping bilateral agreements within Europe and the rest of the world.

On February 24, 2022, the Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that the United States foreign policy of placing military bases in European countries close to its borders and the current Ukraine’s government’s view of Russia constitutes a threat to its existence as a nation.

He went ahead to issue a directive for military action which led to the invasion of Ukraine.

The directive justified the invasion thus:

“The purpose of this operation is to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarise and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation.”

But Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, responded to Putin with a defiant rally of his people against Russia, vowing to defend the Ukrainian territory.

His words: “We know for sure that we don’t need the war. Not a Cold War, not a hot war. Not a hybrid one. But if we’ll be attacked by the [enemy] troops, if they try to take our country away from us, our freedom, our lives, the lives of our children, we will defend ourselves. Not attack, but defend ourselves. And when you will be attacking us, you will see our faces, not our backs, but our faces.”

Prior to the Russian invasion, Putin was aware of the economic consequences on his country but hinged his decision on the claim that his country remains one of the most powerful nuclear states and having “certain advantage in several cutting-edge weapons.”

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Still In Power

The ongoing Russia military operation in Ukraine notwithstanding, Putin’s army is yet to achieve its objective of regime change as outlined by him on February 24.

President Zelenskyy and his entire administration including the parliament are still in charge, engaging in their respective responsibilities although millions of residents have been displaced and are living under tension of attacks.

Zelenskyy’s refusal to flee his country in order to face the Russian aggression might have won him a major international solidarity as well as financial and military support from countries in Europe and the United States and other western allies.

Russian Forces Hold Sway In Donbass As NATO Is Yet To Attack But…

The Russian military’s stronghold is in Donbass ( southern-eastern Ukraine), a territory where President Vladimir Putin had given sovereignty to Donetsk People’s Republic and Lugansk People’s Republic – two separatist organizations and areas in Eastern Ukraine.

Other areas in Ukraine are still witnessing attacks and counter attacks between Russia and Ukraine forces but Putin’s army is gaining advantage at the Mariupol region.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Washington DC, the Russian offensive campaign is not 100% susccessful as of March 31.

It’s assessment of the war reads : “Ukrainian forces conducted several local counterattacks around Kyiv, in northeastern Ukraine, and toward Kherson on March 31, successfully pressuring Russian forces and seeking to disrupt ongoing Russian troop rotations.

“Ukrainian forces northwest of Kyiv pushed Russian forces north of the E-40 highway and will likely assault Russian-held Bucha and Hostomel in the coming days. Ukrainian forces exploited limited Russian withdrawals east of Brovary to retake territory across Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblasts. Ukrainian forces likely conducted counterattacks toward Sumy in the past 24 hours as well, though ISW cannot independently confirm these reports. Finally, Ukrainian forces conducted limited counterattacks in northern Kherson Oblast. Russian forces only conducted offensive operations in Donbas and against Mariupol in the last 24 hours and did not make any major advances.”

Despite the conflict in Ukraine, a European country, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s army is yet to engage in combat with Russian forces.

However, NATO’s actions run contrary to Putin’s concerns in February 24 where he had expressed that the militarization of neighboring countries largely by the United States, were unacceptable to Russia.

As it is now, NATO has placed 40,000 troops on its eastern flank namely Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania.

Global Economic Crisis Affecting The World

Since the Russia, Ukraine conflict began, the European Union, United States and its western allies have imposed stiff economic sanctions on Russian oil, airspaces and elites among others.

The US seems to be gaining economically after President Joe Biden announced recently that “together (with allies), our combined efforts will supply well over a million barrels a day” to address the needs of Americans and the rest of the world.

But the US is strongly pressuring China not to assist Russia, apparently, because of Beijing’s economic edge over most EU countries, jointly.

However, China’s body language is in solidarity with Russia.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin, had said that “There is no ceiling for China-Russia cooperation, no ceiling for us to strive for peace, no ceiling for us to safeguard security and no ceiling for us to oppose hegemony.”

As it is, Russia is exploring its relations with China and others to see how to survive the sanctions while NATO is only ready to attack if Putin’s army invades territory of any member of its alliance.

The next few weeks would certainly be crucial with regard to how the Ukraine -Russia conflict would go down.

But for now, Zelenskyy hangs, much to the chargrin of Putin.