FACT-CHECK: Is Governor Adeleke Outperforming Otti?

In a recent podcast appearance, human rights activist and lawyer Barr. Deji Adeyanju claimed that Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke has achieved more in office than his Abia State counterpart, Alex Otti. Adeyanju attributed the high public perception of Otti to “social media influencers” and “propaganda”, while asserting that Adeleke is delivering more substantive results despite his “dancing” persona.

THE CLAIM:

“The dancing governor (Adeleke) has done more than Alex Otti. The difference is that Otti has more social media influencers; the other guy only attends parties and dances; he’s not taking propaganda seriously. Otti commissioned a water fountain; people were jubilating.” — Barr. Deji Adeyanju.

VERIFYING THE CLAIMS

To verify this claim, The Whistler examined the 2025 governance scorecards and fiscal data provided by Statisense, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Debt Management Office (DMO), and the 2025 SBM Health Preparedness Index. The analysis focused on debt management, revenue growth, infrastructure investment, and human development.

1. Fiscal Discipline and Debt Management: Data from the DMO (June 2023 – Dec 2025) shows that both governors have made efforts to reduce debt, but the scales differ:

• Domestic Debt: Abia State under Otti saw a 66% reduction (N142.5bn to N48.4bn), while Osun under Adeleke recorded a 45% reduction (N146.5bn to N80.3bn).
• External Debt: Adeleke managed Osun’s external debt better, with a 10% increase, compared to Abia’s 16.1% increase.
• Overall Fiscal Performance: In the 2025 Fiscal Performance Ranking, Abia ranked 4th in the federation, while Osun ranked 12th.

2. Revenue Generation (IGR): Adeleke’s administration has shown superior performance in aggressive revenue drives:

• Osun IGR Growth: Grew by 97.6% (N27.72bn to N54.77bn).
• Abia IGR Growth: Grew by 68.6% (N23.73bn to N40.0bn).

3. Infrastructure and Capital Expenditure (Capex): A primary metric for doing more in governance is the allocation of funds to capital projects versus recurrent spending (salaries and overheads):

• Abia (Otti): Allocated N611.7bn (82% of total budget) to Capital Expenditure in 2025.
• Osun (Adeleke): Allocated N191.55bn (45% of total budget) to Capital Expenditure.
• The Whistler fact-check shows Otti is committing nearly double the percentage of his state’s resources to long-term infrastructure than Adeleke.

4. Ease of Doing Business and Health

• Business Environment: According to PEBEC (2025), Abia is in the Middle Tier for Ease of Doing Business, while Osun remains in the Lower Tier.
• Health: The 2025 SBM Health Preparedness Index ranked Abia as the 1st most health-prepared state in Nigeria. Osun followed in a commendable 4th place.

5. Human Development Index (HDI) and FDI

• HDI: Abia maintains a higher Human Development Index (0.674) compared to Osun (0.607), reflecting better outcomes in education and life expectancy.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): According to NBS Capital Importation reports, both states recorded zero ($0) FDI in 2024, indicating that neither governor has yet successfully attracted foreign capital despite their respective “propaganda” or “dancing” styles.

6. Education: Performance & Funding

While Osun has made the most “dramatic” leap in rankings, Abia remains the consistent academic powerhouse of the two.

• National Examination Rankings (NECO 2024/2025):
  • Abia: Ranked 1st in Nigeria for the best overall performance in the 2024 NECO exams (83.40% pass rate). Governor Otti has maintained Abia’s long-standing reputation as an academic leader.
  • Osun: Governor Adeleke’s administration achieved a significant milestone, moving Osun from 33rd in 2022 to 7th in 2024. While impressive, Osun still trails Abia in the top-tier rankings.
• Budgetary Commitment (2026 Projections based on 2025 performance):
  • Abia: Allocated ₦203.25bn (19.93%) of its budget to education. A major project includes the ₦17.8bn fencing and security of 262 secondary schools to ensure student safety.
  • Osun: Allocated ₦87.17bn (12.0%) of its budget to education. The primary focus remains on tertiary infrastructure, such as the Early Childhood Education building at the College of Education, Ila-Orangun.

VERDICT: MISLEADING

Barr. Deji Adeyanju’s claim that Governor Adeleke has done more than Governor Alex Otti is MISLEADING.

While Governor Adeleke leads in IGR growth percentage and external debt control, Governor Otti significantly outperforms him in domestic debt reduction, fiscal performance ranking, Ease of Doing Business, Health Preparedness, Education performance ranking and investment

Most crucially, the data on Capital Expenditure, the most direct measure of “doing” projects, shows that Otti has committed 82% of his budget to infrastructure, more than doubling Adeleke’s 45% commitment. Therefore, the assertion that Otti’s reputation is merely a product of “social media influencers” is contradicted by major fiscal and developmental indices.