Nigeria Records N1.71tn Trade Surplus Despite Export Decline

Nigeria recorded a merchandise trade surplus of N1.71tn in the fourth quarter of 2025, even as the total value of exports declined during the period largely due to a drop in crude oil shipments.

Latest data showed that Nigeria’s total merchandise trade stood at N36.21tn in the fourth quarter of 2025. This represents a decrease of 1.07 per cent compared to the N36.60tn recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024. It also marks an 8.94 per cent decline from the N39.77tn posted in the preceding quarter.

Despite the decline in trade value, the country maintained a positive trade balance of ₦1.71tn, reflecting Nigeria’s continued dependence on export earnings, particularly from crude oil.

Exports accounted for 52.36 per cent of total trade in the quarter under review, with a value of N18.96tn. However, this figure represented a decline of 5.25 per cent compared to the N20.01tn recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, exports dropped by 16.88 per cent from the N22.81tn recorded in the third quarter of 2025.

Analysts attribute the drop in export value primarily to lower crude oil exports during the period, underscoring the continued vulnerability of Nigeria’s trade performance to fluctuations in the global oil market.

Crude oil remained Nigeria’s dominant export commodity in the fourth quarter of 2025. The value of crude oil exports stood at M9.70tn, accounting for 51.17 per cent of total exports.

A breakdown of export data shows that non-crude oil exports accounted for N9.26tn, representing 48.83 per cent of total exports during the period. Within this category, non-oil products contributed N3.15tn, equivalent to 16.59 per cent of total exports.

The figures highlight the gradual but still limited diversification of Nigeria’s export base, with crude oil continuing to account for more than half of the country’s total export earnings.

The fourth-quarter trade figures also reflect broader global economic dynamics, including fluctuations in commodity prices and changes in international trade patterns.

Nigeria’s export earnings have historically been heavily influenced by developments in the global oil market, given that crude oil remains the country’s primary source of foreign exchange revenue.