Mixed Feelings As Divided Opposition May Give Tinubu Victory

Analysts and political observers have pointed out that unlike 2015, the current divided opposition may give the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Bola Tinubu, an easy victory in the 2023 presidential election.

The 2015 presidential election that led to the defeat of then incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, was marshalled by strong opposition members drawn from the All Nigeria People’s Party, ANPP, Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, and Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Chance, CPC, who formed a quintuple alliance.

The alliance gave the opposition a huge platform against the incumbent president and his party, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.

The PDP itself split into two with a splinter group, the new PDP joining the opposition alliance together with faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA.

The nPDP came with five governors while three other governors hesitated with the fear that it would be unheard of for an incumbent president in Africa to be defeated.

Fearing that if the incumbent wins, they could face serious political persecution on account of their move, they stayed back but worked for the defeat of their party, the PDP.

The opposition’s campaign was so strong that the then PDP National Chairman, Adamu Muazu also allegedly worked with it against his party.

The opposition also secured huge diplomatic victory with the US, UK and most Western countries favourably disposed to the easing of Jonathan out of power and the ascension of Buhari.

Unfortunately, such a robust negotiation to build a strong and united opposition has not worked.

While in 2015, two strong candidates with broad national appeal on account of the networks that they built contested, the 2023 election is witnessing four strong candidates, with three in the opposition.

The three in the opposition are Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP.

In 2015, Kwankwaso was one of the five governors who formed the NPDP. The nPDP also had Abdulfatah Ahmed, then governor of Kwara State, Rotimi Amaechi, then Governor of Rivers State and Chairman of the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (check spellings), Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto State, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State, then Speaker of the House of Representatives and current governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal.

Atiku Abubakar, who was Vice President of the PDP (1999-2007) defected again with the nPDP to form the APC. It was reported that he engineered the split in the PDP and went on to contest the APC presidential ticket with Buhari.

Unfortunately for observers and political pundits, the opposition is split this time and lacks genuine mobilisation to unseat the ruling party.

They cited the massive support the three candidates have received in their rallies so far even though the rallies have been described as chaotic and rancorous.

Yet as permutations on who the aggrieved PDP governors would support continues, it’s almost certain that it would not be Atiku.

The five aggrieved governors, who formed the G5 – Seyi Makinde (Oyo), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), and Samuel Ortom (Benue) all attended a meeting with Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the APC few days ago in the UK.

It’s gathered that there are bridges to be crossed as the APC candidate has not acceded to their demand, leaving the coast clear for the candidate of the Labour Party to seize the initiative.

However, come what may, there are divided opinions that such a sharp division in the ranks of the opposition has created a clear path for Tinubu’s victory.

The development has sent anxiety and fears that a divided opposition may in fact favour the APC despite many misgivings against its 8 years in power.

Anambra State Governor, Charles Soludo, was the first to blow open that fear stating in his letter that the Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, was working for the victory of Tinubu.

Soludo in his letter against the backdrop of his TV appearance where he criticised the investment made by Obi which did not sit well with the Obi camp even suggested that Tinubu should finance Obi to ensure his victory.

He said polls showed “that he (Obi) is taking votes away mostly from PDP. Indeed, if I were Asiwaju Tinubu, I would even give Peter Obi money as someone heading one of the departments of his campaign because Obi is making Tinubu’s pathway to victory much easier by indirectly pulling down PDP. It is what it is!”

He acknowledged that Obi’s defection had weakened the PDP, which he regarded as the biggest opposition to win the election, and referred to Labour Party as “a party with literally zero structure,” and wondering why he decamped “thereby attempting to weaken the same PDP he saw as the saviour a few weeks earlier.”

Professor Fabian Osuji Laments Divided Opposition

According to the former Minister of Education, the opposition would have been declared winner before now if they were united.

He is of the opinion that the division in the rank of the opposition has given some life to the ruling party, which is campaigning against itself.

“More interesting is that, President Buhari is keeping a neutral posture which would in all likelihood reduce the impact of incumbency on the electoral process, and also minimize the advantage of the government in power over the opposition parties.

“For example, Tinubu is going about his campaign in much the same way as Atiku and Obi, without the involvement of Abuja.

“It is therefore not likely to take the form of the government in power battling it out with the opposition as such.

“But we should wait and see how the contest unfolds.

“I agree, a united opposition like in 2015 would have definitely sent home the ruling party but nothing is lost yet; the opposition in their separate ways have not lost ground rather APC had a lot to catch up with the opposition.”

Professor Uzodinma Nwala Says Opposition Can Still Defeat APC

The pioneer Executive General-Secretary of the Academic Staff Union of Universities, ASUU, Nwala said even though the opposition is fractured, there is no monolithic North or any expectation that voters in the North will vote for someone like Buhari en masse.

“There is no monolithic North any more. Voting will be done based on various lines.

“A united opposition would have made it easy, agreed but each candidate in the opposition, especially the leading two, has enough support to defeat the ruling party.”

He added that, “there is no doubt that a united opposition would have been better but even as it is, APC would be defeated.”

Divided Opposition Has Never Won Election -Deji Adeyanju

The Human Rights Activist and Convener of Concerned Nigerians has pointed out that “a divided opposition has never won an incumbent and I sincerely don’t see how it would this time around considering the fact that APC has 22 governors.

“The main opposition PDP has been fragmented into four branches and it’s impossible for them to come into any form of coalition at this point.”

While acknowledging that one can never be too sure as the opposition may still be united before the election, he added that “the opposition would have queued behind one of the candidates instead of dividing the votes and acrimony within the opposition was completely unnecessary.

“Kwankwaso would have teamed up with Peter Obi or something would have given them a better fighting chance with some form of serious politicking.

“At the moment Kwankwaso is not even campaigning, he is just going up and down Kano wallowing in self-delusion.

“The main contender Atiku, that is the main branch of the PDP, then the Peter Obi, the Wike faction, if they had come together to aggregate their interest so that they challenge the APC maybe they would have had a very good chance.”