Nigeria’s HIV Infections Decline After 2020 Peak

Nigeria has recorded a sustained decline in new HIV infections following a peak in 2020, according to data from the National Data Repository.

An analysis of data from 2016 to early 2026 shows that new infections rose from 228,017 in 2016 to 237,732 in 2017, before dropping to 215,216 in 2018.

Cases surged again in 2019 to 271,374 and peaked sharply in 2020 at 464,382, the highest level within the review period.

Although infections declined slightly to 451,407 in 2021, transmission levels remained high. However, from 2022, the trend shifted decisively downward.

New cases fell to 330,681 in 2022 and dropped further to 238,752 in 2023. The decline accelerated in 2024, with infections falling to 143,665, and continued in 2025 at 111,476.

Preliminary figures for 2026 indicate that 20,838 cases were recorded between January and March, suggesting the downward trend may be sustained if current efforts continue.

The data further showed a period of fluctuation between 2016 and 2021, marked by significant spikes, followed by a steady and sustained reduction from 2022 onward.

In November 2025, the United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) report said Nigeria recorded a 55 per cent drop in condom distribution due to declining international assistance.

However, on March 23, 2026, the Federal Government announced plans to roll out Lenacapavir, a long-acting injectable HIV prevention drug, across eight states and the Federal Capital Territory as part of efforts to expand access to innovative prevention services.

It also unveiled the National HIV Prevention Plan 2026–2030 to shift from reactive treatment to proactive, development-focused interventions.