Obi-Kwankwaso Ticket Ignites Opposition Hopes, As Atiku’s Position Remains Uncertain

For the first time since the 2027 presidential race began, Nigeria’s opposition appears to be gaining momentum, fuelled by the defection of former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso to the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

The arrival of Kwankwaso on what supporters are calling the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket has energised the opposition, raising hopes of a genuine contest against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Unlike in 2015, when the opposition was more fragmented, this coalition is considered a potential challenge to the incumbency advantage.

The APC, however, remains confident that its record and President Bola Tinubu’s perceived performance will secure victory. Party officials and the president’s handlers argue that despite rising insecurity and economic challenges, these issues cannot be solely attributed to the president, noting that the problems predate his administration.

“Economic-wise, Nigerians are better off, and the current rot did not start today,” the APC has said. “With the defection of governors, senators, and other high-profile opposition figures into our fold, we are well-positioned to win decisively.”

However, we cannot overlook the ADC’s increasing momentum. Kwankwaso’s defection was marked by a high-profile ceremony in Kano, attended by ADC leaders, including Peter Obi and former minister Rotimi Amaechi.

The event drew thousands and dominated social media discussions, its energy punctuated only by news of the Jos massacre.

Supporters hailed the event as a turning point for Nigeria’s democracy. Social media users juxtaposed images of the Kano rally with reports of the Jos tragedy, expressing hope that the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket could curb violence and killings nationwide.

Amid the excitement, the position of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar remains a focal point. Atiku, who did not attend the Kano ceremony, welcomed Kwankwaso, stating, “When men of conviction come together, power trembles. Welcome aboard, Kwankwaso.”

Despite the fanfare surrounding ADC, questions linger over whether Atiku will secure the party’s presidential ticket. Some argue that it is still the South’s turn to produce a candidate – a rationale Atiku opposed in 2023 when he contested on the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) platform and finished second.

There are also concerns that Atiku may not support any party candidate if he fails to secure the presidential ticket; however, his camp insists he remains a party man and will back whoever emerges to challenge the APC.

Publisher of Ovation Magazine and an Atiku political ally, Dele Momodu, insists the former vice president is well-placed to challenge Tinubu.

“The most experienced politician and administrator in Nigeria today is Atiku. You can’t compete with Tinubu on money or structures; the only way to compete is technically,” Momodu, the loudest southern voice behind another Atiku ticket said.

He stressed, “You must go to the North where there is a crisis, reach those who need incentives, and give them incentives.”

Momodu dismissed zoning arguments and the eight-year rotational arrangement between North and South, calling them “misleading and not grounded in constitutional reality.”

He emphasised, “The constitution of Nigeria does not prevent anyone from contesting.”

Atiku has reaffirmed his commitment to contest, insisting that the ADC must conduct a primary to select its candidate.

Speculation that he might step aside for the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket has been officially denied, though the party faces pressure to ensure the South produces the candidate, hoping it will be enough to unseat the APC.

But supporters of Obi-Kwankwaso argue that the coalition’s combination of Peter Obi’s mass-following movements – the Obedient Movement and Village Boys Movement – and Kwankwaso’s Kwankwasiyya base makes the ticket formidable, despite concerns about electoral rigging.

However, lawyer and political analyst Deji Adeyanju remains skeptical. He blamed the opposition’s failure to unify in 2023 for Tinubu’s victory and warned, “I have no issue with the opposition coming together to defeat the failed Tinubu government, but giving Obi the ADC ticket – let Tinubu continue.

“In 2027, any other opposition candidate is acceptable, but if Obi gets the ticket, it’s personal,” he said without further elaboration.

In contrast, Yunusa Tanko, Director-General of the Obidient Movement, challenged Adeyanju’s position, asserting, “Only a true patriot can manage our diversity to greatness. Nigerians must arise and shine; a New Nigeria is possible.”

As the 2027 race unfolds, the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket has injected new energy into the opposition landscape, but uncertainty surrounding Atiku’s role and the APC’s entrenched structures will determine how far the ticket can go.

Although Obi has dismissed the possibility of running as Atiku’s vice-presidential candidate, some ADC leaders believe this option could strengthen the ticket and enhance its chances against the APC.

With presidential primaries just weeks away, the ADC faces a critical test bordering on conducting a credible primary while managing internal disputes between long-standing members and new members, who are laying claims to party ownership.