OPINION: Beyond Open Letters: The Facts Fuelling Nigeria’s Energy Sector Growth

In recent weeks, series of open letters and opinion pieces have sought to cast doubt on Nigeria’s energy sector reforms, questioning the direction of the energy sector and the policies of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration. While constructive criticism is always welcomed, these largely non-factual commentaries with blatant disregard for research reveal a troubling disconnect from the facts on the ground.

This article therefore seeks to provide a balanced perspective by highlighting the facts, achievements and strategic initiatives currently shaping Nigeria’s future. The objective is not to defend any entity or institution but to ensure that public discourse is anchored on validated facts rather than speculations or deliberately engineered misinformation.

Over the past three years, the Tinubu administration has pursued a deliberate and coordinated strategy to transform Nigeria from a Nation dependent on imported petroleum products into an integrated energy hub capable of powering its own industrialisation and that of the wider West African region.

Beyond any rhetoric, this is a matter of public record
We have so far witnessed a comprehensive overhaul of the gas sector, supported by the decade of gas initiative, the Presidential CNG and E-vehicle initiative, the Presidential Executive Order & Directive on gas development targeting to 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2027 and 12 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, while catalysing over $60bn in new investments across the oil and gas value chain.

To ensure the realization of the Presidential mandate, NNPC Limited, in collaboration with its Joint Venture (JV) partners and key industry stakeholders, launched the NNPC Gas Master Plan on 31 January 2026 as the strategic framework for accelerating gas sector development and delivering Nigeria’s long-term energy ambitions. Recognizing that strategy without execution add little or no value, NNPC Limited subsequently established a dedicated Gas Master Plan Implementation Assurance Team to drive deliver, track milestones, remove bottlenecks, and provide disciplined performance assurance across the portfolio of gas initiatives. Though its early stages yet- over 50 per cent of the gas development target for 2026 has already been achieved. A major objective of the NNPC Gas Master Plan is ensuring that all serious in-country gas utilisation projects secure the gas they require.

These are not abstract ambitions. In May 2026, NNPC reported crude oil and condensate output of 1.73 million barrels per day, alongside natural gas production of 7.774 billion standard cubic feet per day. These are the results of deliberate strategy, not chance.
One of the most significant developments of recent years has been the growing collaboration between NNPC and other industry partners, demonstrating that progress is being made through partnership, not conflict.

The Dangote Group, one of the very important symbol of Nigerian private sector ambition, has expanded its gas supply agreements with NNPC subsidiaries to support its refinery, fertiliser, and cement operations. These significant deals, signed during the NNPC Gas Master Plan 2026 event, underscore the critical role of a stable energy supply in supporting industrial expansion across Africa’s largest economy.

Currently, NNPC – as part of its broader strategy to ensure NNPC becomes a global top ten hub of gas-based industries by the year 2031- is championing gas supply to strategic projects such as Dangote Fertiliser, Indorama, Notore, etc. The integrated gas value chain approach is not just being put to practice but being ramped up.

The International Oil Companies (IOCs) and energy independents are also playing their part. In August 2025, NNPC Limited, leading upstream gas suppliers, and Nigeria LNG (NLNG) signed landmark 20-year Gas Supply Agreements for the supply of 1.29 billion standard cubic feet per day of feed gas. This deal, which involves nine upstream suppliers including Shell, TotalEnergies, and Eni, addresses the prolonged shortfall in upstream gas supply and marks a significant boost for Nigeria’s energy transition agenda.

The Group CEO of NNPC, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, praised President Tinubu for creating the enabling environment for such investment, noting that recent executive orders on gas development have provided critical support to the sector. This is showing up in the significant gas supply and LNG production performance improvements by NLNG, with NLNG having the best overall performance since 2019.

The critics of the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline (AAGP) appear oblivious to the fact that this ambitious project is riding on the back of the hugely successful West African Gas Pipeline (WAGP) project. The WAGP, an NNPC-led project, has already transported over 613 million MMBtu of natural gas, with Nigeria contributing more than 68 percent of the total supply to neighbouring countries. Recent data shows a 22 percent gas supply increase in 2025 compared to previous years.

Discussions are underway to boost pipeline capacity utilisation by up to 45 percent in 2026. Indeed its a verifiable fact that 2025 was the best year in terms of financial performance for the West African Gas Pipeline Company (WAPCO) since commencement of operations in 2011. This is a proven model of regional energy integration that the AAGP will build upon and expand.

Just last Sunday, July 19, 2026, the Heads of State of ECOWAS member countries signed the Intergovernmental Agreement for the AAGP at the ECOWAS Summit in Freetown, Sierra Leone. This is not a “memorandum of misunderstanding”; it is a binding international treaty that provides the sovereign foundation required to move the AAGP project from vision to delivery. The project, jointly led by NNPC Ltd and Morocco’s ONHYM, will span nearly 6,900 kilometres along the Atlantic coast, delivering up to 30 billion cubic metres of gas per year to power plants, factories, and European markets. It has sovereign backing from Nigeria, Morocco, ECOWAS member countries, and Mauritania. The AAGP will establish a strategic development corridor linking West Africa, the Sahel, Morocco, and Europe.

The fact must be reiterated that the AAGP is primarily an economic project structured to deliver significant value to its shareholders, gas suppliers and Nigeria primarily. The focus from the outset has been getting gas to market on a more competitive basis when compared to a typical LNG Plant or a Floating LNG Project. Critically, the African market demand is growing and geared to grow even more exponentially (driven by population spikes) so the AAGP has been structured to deliver 1billion standard cubic feet of gas per day from offshore to the Lekki industrial corridor, 500million standard cubic feet per day of gas to Badagry, while also delivering gas to 15 other African countries and economies. This is a major “gap to potential” project that will make important contributions in moving Nigeria from a 215tcf validated reserves Nation to a 600tcf gas reserves position.

Consequently, its disingenous to state that this project is resting on a ceremony. The feasibility study has been completed and the Front-End Engineering Design concluded. Route reconnaissance surveys have been finalised, environmental and social studies are well advanced, and the key legal, regulatory and commercial frameworks have been established. These are completed technical deliverables, not aspirations, and they were reported publicly at the time of the Freetown signing. Coordination of the Countries also leverages on the vastly successful WAGP (WAGPA) model, which has been consistently effective. ECOWAS is also visible supporting and the regulatory entity- the Pipeline Higher Authority will shortly be established ans located in Abuja Nigeria.

The project now enters its implementation phase: a Project Company to be established in Casablanca and a Pipeline Higher Authority in Abuja, which together will drive investor mobilisation and the preparation of the Final Investment Decision.

Based on publicly available information, work remains. However, the remaining work is consistent with the Project’s current stage of development. Assessed against international standards, the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline is a credible, well-structured and maturing regional infrastructure project.

Let’s be clear: Nigeria’s gas future cannot be built on a false choice between domestic and export markets. Rather, it is driven by a strategy that supports growth in both, underpinned by accelerated gas development, infrastructure expansion, and market diversification.

The Nigeria LNG (NLNG) joint venture, in which NNPC owns a 49 percent stake alongside Shell, TotalEnergies, and Eni, is another example of how collaboration is delivering results for Nigerians. NLNG has committed 100 percent of its LPG volumes to the domestic market and currently accounts for about 40 percent of what goes into the domestic LPG market.

This is a significant contribution to reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported LPG and ensuring that more Nigerian households have access to cleaner cooking fuel. The recent Gas Supply Agreements signed in August 2025 will restore supply reliability to the Bonny Island plant and support NLNG’s expansion drive bearing in mind that Train 7 is scheduled to be commissioned around mid-year 2027. Praises are coming from far and near, with investments being pledged in the billions. NNPC is applying consistent focus in driving an lpg expansion programme geared at significantly expanding LPG production in-country as well as a pipeline gas for cooking initiative to ensure that the generality of Nigerians have access to clean cooking.

The recent NNPC approach to revitalising Nigeria’s refineries, another target of misinformation, demonstrates that the government is learning from past mistakes. The Technical Equity Partnership (TEP) model, as articulated by NNPC leadership, represents a fundamental shift from treating refinery rehabilitation as a project to treating the refinery as a business.

The Turnaround Maintenance (TAM) model that failed in the past was essentially an engineering intervention where contractors were paid to repair equipment but had no long-term stake in operational success. The TEP model is fundamentally different. NNPC is seeking partners who have demonstrated capability in refinery operations, maintenance, reliability, process optimisation, and commercial management.

Their responsibility extends beyond commissioning to ensuring that the refineries operate safely, reliably, efficiently, and profitably over the long term.
Crucially, the incentives are fundamentally aligned. Under the TEP model, the partner’s success is tied to the operational and commercial performance of the refinery. This creates a strong incentive to improve reliability, maximise throughput, optimise costs, and ensure sustainable profitability rather than simply completing a maintenance scope.

The Memorandum of Understanding signed with Sanjiang Chemical and Xinganchen in April 2026 is the first step in this direction. Unlike previous contractors who came in, collected fees, and left when things fell apart, these partners would have a financial stake in the refineries’ performance. Their returns would be tied to the plants running profitably. This is a prudent pathway to avoid the mistakes and inefficiencies of the past.

Nigeria’s energy sector is undergoing a transformation that is both real and measurable. The policies of the Tinubu administration, implemented through NNPC and in collaboration with private sector partners like Dangote, IOCs, and energy independents, are delivering results. Gas production is increasing, infrastructure is being built, regional partnerships are being strengthened, and domestic LPG supply is improving.

Those who continue to spread misinformation about these developments are not serving the National interest but that of their known paymaster. I find it difficult to conclude that informed observers of the Energy industry are unaware of these developments given that the many milestones, achievements, investments and reforms highlighted are matters of public records and have been discussed extensively within the industry circles.

This raises the question of whether the recent commentaries are caused by genuine misunderstandings or from a selective misinterpretation of facts intended to support a pre-determined narrative.

Any objective review or analysis will acknowledge that bold, necessary and important reforms are being implemented, and strategic partnerships are being strengthened while major gas infrastructure projects like OB3, ELPS Midline Compressor and AKK are being completed. Nigeria energy still has areas of improvement, but the direction of travel is certainly positive and on the right track.

Adegbola is an energy analyst, with over two decades in the oil and gas industry. He writes from Abuja.