Afrinvest Sees Nigeria’s Inflation Rising To 13.7%

Afrinvest Investment Research has said that Nigeria’s inflation will reach a monthly average of 13.7% in 2020.

This follows the new inflation report published by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, which showed inflation had  reached 12.3% in January, a 0.15% increase from 11.98% in December 2019.

The Consumer Price Index report released showed a 21-month high from 12.0% in December 2019, to 12.1% in January 2020.

Afrinvest made the forecast on  Tuesday in a publication posted on its verified twitter account, @Afrinvestresearch, where it stated that the uptrend in the NBS January 2020 inflation report would be short-lived.

The Nigerian based Business and investment research institution, said the premises for its 13.7% forecast were the “land border closure, insecurity in food planting regions and upward review of VAT, which  would drive inflation higher in the coming months.”

The firm said that the proposed adjustment in electricity tariff in April would  also hike inflation in the months forward.

It however stated further that if the listed constraints were curbed, inflation might likely drop.

Recall that the closure of Nigeria’s land borders in 2019 heightened the rise of inflation in the country, as the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, had last December 2019 said that the rise in inflation “was reactionary”.

Food insecurity has contributed a high percentage in the inflation hike, as Boko-Haram insurgency, banditry and kidnapping in the Northern region of the country have disrupted farming , consequently food inflation rose to 14.9% from 14.7%, according to the  new CPI report.