As Russia Takes Over The Wagner Group: Implications For Africa

A few days before the fatal crash of his aircraft in August 2023, Evgueny Prigozhin, the founder of the mercenary militia, the Wagner Group, appeared on camera where he made the stark statement that “Wagner is making Russia even greater on every continent – and Africa even more free.” The world did not pay heed. Africa, in particular, was tone deaf to that grim assertion.

Coming from a man who relishes chaos, blood and death, “making Africa free” should have sent warning signals across the continent, but sadly, nobody was listening. Africa cannot possibly be made “free” from agents of destabilisation, anti-democracy and abusers of human rights. Look to Mali, see what is happening in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger Republic, and everywhere the Kremlin has a firm foothold, the story is evident that it is anything but free.

Foreign affairs watchers need to rise from their diplomatic slumber, as the Russian Federation has taken over the Wagner Group’s affairs following the initial hiatus following Prigozhin’s death, newly available documents reveal. Before meeting his fate, Prigozhin’s influence on the continent was broad and expanding. But now, that empire has been handed over to Russian intelligence through Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Africa Politology.

The worry is that the Wagner Group is not just a cocktail of hardened soldiers of fortune. It is a machine built on strategy and organisation for conquest and domination. A well-oiled machine, composed of strategic communication specialists, country experts, political campaigners and social media professionals. Now, the SVR is reorganising and tightly integrating the Group into a state-led strategy of influence and power projection.

In the document made available by INPACT – initially under the flagship project called All Eyes On Wagner (AEOW), launched in late 2021 is at the intersection of open source research, traditional investigative journalism, forensics and technical investigation on Russian affairs – the present effort is focused on the Global South with a princely budget of approximately $750,000 per month to push counter-narratives, disinformation and propaganda not just about the war against Ukraine, but to portray Kremlin as the superpower concerned with the progress of the continent while undermining the West.

The leaked documents show that Africa Politology has two main activities: “politology” and “media”. The “politology” team focuses on lobbying, public affairs, and international relations. In contrast, the “media” team works on strategic communications, studying public opinion and crafting narrative campaigns through fake social media accounts and websites, buying articles, and using influencers.

In the documents, the spin doctors report month after month their activities and achievements: organising opinion polls, speaking to key personalities in the countries for consulting, lobbying to shape domestic policies and regulations, especially by promoting an equivalent to the Russian law on foreign agents in some countries or lobbying for the overhaul of the Malian code.

In the Niger Republic, for instance, the Company writes that they carried out an operation against Orano, the French uranium company with mining operations in Arlit. The objective is two-fold: discrediting competitors, such as Western countries or companies, and capturing new strategic markets, including natural resources, energy, and minerals. Africa Politology also pays sources in key positions in government or political spheres, as seen in a document shared with AEOW/INPACT.

The “media” team works on narrative campaigns to shape public opinions and push key messages into the public spheres of target countries. To do so, they rely on various techniques. The leaked documents show how they purchase clusters of Facebook accounts and manage the promotion funds for Telegram channels like “Sovereign”, “Arab Africa,” “Galloping Across Africa,” “Algeria Today,” SHARQ, and Abbas Djuma.

Syncing with the leaked document, this February, the Russian MFA Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused the Kyiv government of supporting terrorist organisations in Africa. What disingenuousness!
According to Zakharova, “We (Russia) have commented repeatedly on the activities of the Kyiv regime on the African continent. We condemn the persistent attempts by certain countries to restore their lost colonial influence in Africa. They show little restraint in their choice of methods: there are known plans to eliminate national leaders deemed “undesirable.” In January of this year, an assassination attempt against Burkina Faso’s President Ibrahim Traoré was thwarted. Niger is also suffering at the hands of terrorists. In late January, an attack claimed by ISIS targeted Niamey airport. Here too, a Western link is evident.”

It is the least surprising when the evidence points to the Kremlin’s destabilisation agenda in the Global South, with Africa at the worst. Africa needs to chart its own destiny, free from foreign influences, whether from the West, China, or Russia. To achieve this, it must tailor its foreign policies to be African-centric while not ignoring the place of multiculturalism. Another factor, as a guardrail, is good governance and democracy. Anything less is to leave the door open for influences such as Russia, with their resource-grabbing and dictatorship-enabling.

Amajama, a social affairs analyst, writes from Abuja ([email protected]).