Despite Various Policy Measures, FG Failed To Achieve ERGP Target For Agric Sector—Investigation

With the current economic realities across Nigeria, there is no gain saying that the federal government has failed in achieving the targets of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan.

The four-year plan which was launched in 2017 by the federal government, focused on three strategic objectives; restoring growth, investing in people and building a competitive economy.

It also targeted a seven per cent Gross Domestic Product growth rate by 2020 to be driven by strong non-oil sector growth anchored by agriculture and food security energy, transportation and industrialization.

THE WHISTLER findings revealed that while the ERGP targeted a seven per cent GDP growth rate, 9.90 per cent inflation rate, oil production of 2.5 million barrels per day, 11.23 percent of unemployment rate among others to be achieved in 2020, the current economic indices in NIgeria has remained a far cry from projection.

However, available data shows that at the third quarter of 2020, the real GDP stood at -3.6 percent according to the National Bureau of Statistics,  the unemployment rate as at second quarter of 2020 was 27.1 per cent, oil production was at 1.42 mbpd as at December 2020, and a 15.75 percent inflation rate as at December 2020 as against the projection of the plan.

Focusing on the agriculture sector, the plan projected a sectoral growth  of 5.03 per cent in 2017, 7.04 per cent in 2018, 7.23 per cent in 2019 and 8.37 per cent in 2020, and increased agriculture GDP from N16trn in 2015 to N21trn in 2020 at an average annual growth rate of 6.92 per cent (2017-2020). 

The government also aimed to achieve significant reduction in food imports and become a net exporter of key agricultural products, such as rice, tomatoes, vegetable oil, cashew nuts, groundnuts, cassava, poultry, fish, livestock, as well as become self-sufficient in tomato paste by 2017, rice by 2018, and wheat by 2019/2020.
 

According to the plan, “Investment in agriculture will drive food security by achieving self-sufficiency in food production, particularly in rice, in tomato paste (in 2017), rice (in 2018) and wheat (in 2020), with a plan to increase milled rice capacity from three to ten million tons annually.

Available data showed that in 2019, rice production increased to 4.79 million metric tons while rice importation reduced to 1.80 MMT.  

The Federal Government said it launched the Growth Enhancement Support scheme to supply subsidized inputs to smallholder farmers and registered 14 million farmers in the scheme. 

Appraising the performance of the plan, experts said it was rather a lofty wish list with projections that were quite unrealistic.

They added that economic plans going forward should be specific with actionable plans.

In a chat with THE WHISTLER, Ibrahim Aliu, Chief Executive Officer, Aliu Farms in Kaduna said that the plan failed to proffer solutions to the major problems in the sector.

This, he noted, was the major reason why the impact was not felt in the sector.

He explained that access to finance, mechanization, poor infrastructure such as roads, irrigation as well as storage facilities among others are major challenges affecting farmers. 

According to him, other areas that need serious attention are mechanization, fertilizer, storage facilities, adding that Nigeria with a population of over 200 million people has less than N50,000 tractors across the nation.   

He said, “Adequate financing is critical to any sector, and agriculture is not left out. Today we still have farmers using hoes and cutlasses in farms, in this age.

“I think the plan was just too ambiguous, the government failed to identify the basic needs of farmers, let us hope that they will do better in future plans.”

Speaking further, Aliu said that the annual budgetary allocation to the sector in the recent past has been a far cry from the amount needed to meet the demand of the sector.

He added that it does not reflect government’s stance to diversifying the economy and cannot yield the desired growth in the sector. 

“Take for example the national budgetary allocation to the agriculture sector since 2018, the amount has been declining. It dropped from N118.98bn in 2018 to N107.22bn in 2019 and N83bn in the 2020 budget, which is quite disheartening.

“The sector is underfunded, there is a need for a supplementary allocation for agriculture if we must work to diversify the economy, the federal government needs to revisit the allocation to the agriculture sector.”

The Executive Director, Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre, Auwal Ibrahim Rafsanjani, told THE WHISTLER that the plan failed to deliver its targets especially with issues around reducing poverty and expanding foreign direct investment.

Rafsanjani speaking further said that a look at the projections of the 2020 budget shows that the government lost faith in the plan even before it ended, as the budget had projections below the projections of the plans which speak to the unrealistic nature of the plan.

He said, “the projections of the 2020 budget clearly shows that the government has not worked with the plan. The government should put in mechanisms to review the successes and failures of its plans.

“It’s time we face reality and develop a more effective plan that will improve the economic performance because the ERGP had several lapses as seen in the current rate of unemployment, taxation, as well as poor state of facilities such as electricity, water roads that are critical for economic activities”. 

He further said that the Nigeria business environment has been challenged with various vices such as corruption, insecurity  and the Covid-19 pandemic being the major challenge in the 2020 fiscal year.

“Another challenge that we also have is that the informal sector has remained over taxed while most of the big companies are receiving waiver.

“Subsequent plans should focus on reducing poverty and unemployment as well as create economic stability. Also, we need laws that will check our excess borrowings,” he added.

ENDS