Intrigues, Dynamics That May Decide Winner Of Osun Governorship Election

The Osun State governorship election holding on Saturday will be keenly contested between the incumbent governor, Adegboyega Oyetola and the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Senator Ademola Adeleke.

Although other candidates are contesting but only the Accord Party candidate, Dr Akin Ogunbiyi, appears to be the third force. Ogunbiyi, having contested the PDP primary election in 2018 against Adeleke is more popular among the electorate than former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Lasun Yusuf who is the flag bearer of the Labour Party in the Saturday poll.

The two leading candidates are from different local government areas and senatorial districts and the poll which is going to be the second contest between the duo has promised to be a tough one as they return to the field to contest for votes of the people the second time in four years.

Some of the dynamics that played out in the 2018 governorship poll have changed and the effects of these may manifest in terms of number of votes which each of the contestants will score on Saturday.

While Oyetola who is from Boripe Local Government Area of the state is expected to win in the local government and other closer local government areas , the ‘battle’ for votes in Osogbo and Olorunda local government areas which have the highest number of registered voters will be tough although the governor may still win.

Adeleke is also expected to also win landslide in Ede North and Ede South local government areas where he comes from.

Senator Iyiola Omisore, who was the governorship candidate of the Social Democratic Party and who had a great influence in local government areas in Ifeland has since defected to
the ruling APC and he would want to further prove to his new party that his influence on the electorate in the area had not waned.

Omisore played a key role in the eventual victory of APC in the rerun governorship poll in 2018. Omisore, who dumped the PDP to contest the election on the platform of the SDP came third in the poll and the rerun poll was held in some units which fall within his stronghold.

The APC delegates led by Governor Kayode Fayemi and the Secretary to government of the Federation, Boss Mustapha stormed the residence of Omisore, who is a former deputy governor of the state and wooed him to support the APC candidate. It was easy to persuade him to support Oyetola for the rerun poll because the contest was just between Adeleke, who was leading and Oyetola who came second.

Omisore caved in to pressure mounted on him and supported Oyetola and his partnership with Oyetola has since grown bigger and the APC is expected to benefit from this relationship in terms of votes in local government within Ife on Saturday.

Oyetola is also likely going to win in Iwo Local Government. The local government was won in 2018 poll by an Indigene of the town, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, who was the flag bearer of the African Democratic Party. The Oluwo of Iwo, Oba Abdurashee Akanbi, has been campaigning openly for Oyetola among his subjects and this may work in favour of the incumbent

The Minister of Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, won the 2018 poll for his party APC in Ilesa East Local Government Area with about 1200 votes above what the PDP candidate scored, but due to the crisis between the minister and Oyetola, the PDP may put up a better show in the local government this time.

In Ejigbo Local Government Area, Oyetola will likely repeat his good performance there because the most influential politician there who swayed voters for the APC has started to campaign for the party again. Although he was with Aregbesola at a point, but he has been working for Oyetola now and his influence will count for the party.

The APC struggled so hard to win in Ila Local Government Area which is the home of former Governor Bisi Akande. The APC won the poll by just 200 votes ahead of the PDP and the local government will still be open to the two leading candidates on Saturday.

The difference was even much smaller in Odo Otin Local Government as APC led the PDP with 117 votes despite that former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola was in the APC then. Oyinlola has returned to his former party, PDP now and that may give the opposition party an edge on Saturday.