Nigeria Records $5.31bn Decline In Crude Oil Export Earnings

…Oil Revenue Drop Underscores Pressure On Nigeria’s Economy

Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy faced renewed strain as crude oil export earnings declined sharply, reinforcing concerns about the country’s fiscal stability and external sector resilience, THE WHISTLER can report.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) seen by THE WHISTLER showed that crude oil export earnings dropped by $5.31bn year-on-year, falling from $36.85bn in 2024 to $31.54bn in 2025.

The 14.41 per cent decline reflects persistent challenges in oil production, price volatility in the global market, and shifting dynamics within Nigeria’s petroleum sector.

The fall in oil earnings significantly impacted Nigeria’s current account position. Although the country maintained a surplus of $14.04bn in 2025, this marked a notable decline from $19.03bn recorded in the previous year.

The development underscores the extent to which crude oil exports continue to underpin Nigeria’s foreign exchange inflows, despite ongoing efforts to diversify the economy.

Experts say the decline highlights structural vulnerabilities, particularly Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil as a primary revenue source.

Any disruption whether from production shortfalls, pipeline vandalism, or fluctuating global prices tends to have an outsized effect on the country’s fiscal health and external balance.

However, the drop in crude export earnings is occurring alongside a broader transformation in Nigeria’s oil and gas landscape.

The emergence of large-scale domestic refining, led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, is gradually reshaping trade flows within the sector.

Rather than exporting crude oil and importing refined products, Nigeria is beginning to process more crude locally and export refined petroleum products to international markets.

This shift. according to THE WHISTLER findings is already evident in trade data. While crude export earnings declined, the country recorded stronger performance in its goods account, which posted a surplus of $14.51bn in 2025, up from $13.17bn in 2024.

The improvement was supported by increased exports of refined petroleum products, with the Dangote refinery alone accounting for exports valued at $5.85bn during the year.

At the same time, the availability of locally refined fuel significantly reduced Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products.

Refined fuel imports fell sharply to $10bn in 2025, down from $14.06bn in 2024, representing a 28.88 per cent year-on-year decline. This reduction helped ease pressure on foreign exchange demand and contributed to the overall resilience of the external sector.

Despite these gains, challenges persist. The CBN report also showed that non-oil imports rose by 13.60 per cent to $29.24bn, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods and services. This increase continues to exert pressure on the country’s trade balance and underscores the slow pace of diversification in the non-oil sector.

Additionally, external obligations weighed more heavily on Nigeria’s financial position. Net service outflows increased to $14.58nn in 2025, driven by higher spending on transportation, travel, and insurance.

Similarly, outflows under the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09nn, largely due to increased dividend repatriation and interest payments to foreign investors.

These pressures were partially offset by inflows from remittances and other secondary income sources, which stood at $23.20bn, though slightly lower than the $24.88bn recorded in 2024.

Remittances remain a critical buffer for Nigeria’s external sector, helping to cushion the impact of declining oil revenues.

The Federal Government had on Tuesday called on oil operators to immediately scale up production to take advantage of rising global crude oil prices.

Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, made the appeal on Tuesday during the Cross Industry Group described Nigeria as a prime destination for oil and gas investments, noting that the country is well-positioned to help address emerging global supply gaps.

Lokpobiri urged operators to focus on quick-win strategies such as re-entry programmes and in-field well development to increase output rapidly.

According to him, the current global market dynamics present a short-term opportunity that stakeholders must collectively maximise.

Nigeria’s crude oil production rose to 1.459 million barrels per day (bpd) in January 2026, up from 1.422 million bpd recorded in December 2025. Despite retaining its position as Africa’s top producer, output has remained below the 1.5 million bpd quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries for six consecutive months.

In February, production fluctuated between 1.31 million and 1.46 million bpd due to ongoing challenges such as oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment in the Niger Delta. This remains significantly below the government’s target of 2 million bpd.

Lokpobiri further urged oil companies to respond with increased Final Investment Decisions (FIDs), stressing the need to boost investor confidence and sustain momentum in the industry.