Nigeria’s Economy Expands 3.98% In Q3 As Services, Agriculture Lift GDP

Nigeria’s economy maintained its recovery momentum in the third quarter of 2025, expanding by 3.98 per cent year-on-year in real terms, according to the latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The growth rate edged slightly above the 3.86 per cent recorded in the same period of 2024, reflecting sustained improvement across major sectors despite lingering structural pressures.

The report, published on Monday, showed that the expansion was driven largely by stronger performances in the services, agriculture, and industry sectors, which collectively helped stabilise the economy during the period under review.
According to the NBS, “Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.98 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2025. This growth rate is higher than the 3.86 per cent recorded in the third quarter of 2024.

During the quarter under review, agriculture grew by 3.79 per cent, an improvement from the 2.55 per cent recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024.”

The services sector, which has remained Nigeria’s economic backbone, once again dominated overall output. It contributed 53.02 per cent to real GDP, slightly higher than the 52.93 per cent recorded a year earlier.

Telecommunications, financial institutions, trade, and real estate led the gains within the sector, helping to offset moderation in public administration and some segments of transportation.

The industry sector also recorded notable improvement, expanding by 3.77 per cent in real terms compared with 2.78 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2024.

This was buoyed by moderate gains in manufacturing and improvements in electricity, gas, and water supply, although mining and quarrying remained a drag.

Aggregate nominal GDP rose sharply to N113.59tn in Q3 2025, up from N96.16tn in the same period of 2024, representing a nominal growth rate of 18.12 per cent year-on-year. Analysts say the rise reflects both real sector improvements and the impact of elevated price levels across the economy.

The oil sector posted mixed performance during the period. Nigeria recorded an average daily crude oil production of 1.64 million barrels per day (mbpd), higher than the 1.47 mbpd produced in the same quarter of 2024 but slightly below the 1.68 mbpd recorded in Q2 2025.

Real growth in the oil sector stood at 5.84 per cent, marginally above the 5.66 per cent recorded a year earlier.

However, quarter-on-quarter, the sector contracted by 5.53 per cent, reflecting supply fluctuations and operational constraints in the upstream segment. Oil contributed 3.44 per cent to real GDP in Q3 2025, higher than 3.38 per cent in the same period of 2024 but lower than the 4.05 per cent recorded in the previous quarter.

The non-oil sector remained the dominant driver of economic activity, expanding by 3.91 per cent in real terms, higher than the 3.79 per cent posted in Q3 2024 and the 3.64 per cent recorded in Q2 2025.

Growth came primarily from agriculture, particularly crop production, telecommunications, construction, trade, manufacturing, and financial services.

Despite the positive headline figures, some subsectors faced challenges. The Mining and Quarrying sector contracted sharply in nominal terms, declining by 41.08 per cent year-on-year, reflecting subdued investment and production constraints.

The agricultural sector also recorded slower nominal growth of 3.18 per cent, hindered by high input costs and logistics disruptions, though crop production remained dominant at 65.99 per cent of the sector’s nominal value.

Manufacturing grew by 1.25 per cent year-on-year, better than the previous year but slightly below Q2 2025.

The latest GDP report follows the Q2 2025 figures that showed a stronger 4.23 per cent growth rate, indicating a slight moderation in the third quarter but still pointing to a resilient economy navigating inflationary pressures, exchange rate adjustments, and oil sector volatility.