ANALYSIS: Akpabio’s Planned Defection: Conviction Or Conspiracy

Dr Godswill Akpabio is scheduled to formally defect from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) at a ceremony in Uyo, the Akwa Ibom State capital, on Wednesday.

Akpabio resigned as Senate Minority Leader on Tuesday, fueling speculations that he may have cut a deal with the ruling party that could see him get a top slot in the Senate.

His resignation was contained in a letter dated August 4, 2018, and addressed to the Deputy Senate Minority Leader, Senator Emmanuel Bwacha.

Resigning as Minority Leader means that Akpabio may have been promised something higher in the APC which is allegedly plotting the removal of Dr Bukola Saraki as the Senate President following the latter’s defection to the PDP.

Although the former governor of Akwa Ibom did not give any reason for his decision, there are speculations that the APC may be positioning him as Senate President in a bid to stem the gale of the defections currently rocking the ruling party.

Why would the Senate Minority Leader of a party that has benefited from high profile defections quit? Is he acting out of strong conviction that his party is no longer a good vehicle for him and that the ruling party is now the best vehicle in the present dispensation? Is he supporting the re-election of President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019 because he believes in his administration’s policies and programmes?

Does Akpabio truly believe that the APC government under Buhari has succeeded in contrast to the PDP’s position that the government has failed?

These are some of the questions raised by Akpabio’s planned defection to APC since President Buhari’s Senior Special Assistant on Prosection, Okoi Obono-Obla, confirmed the defection move of the Senate Minority Leader to the APC.

But perhaps, the PDP should have seen this coming. After Buhari’s emergence as president in 2015, the federal lawmaker who represents Akwa Ibom North West had drummed support for President Buhari’s anti-corruption war.

He had said, “My Senatorial District PDP stakeholders passed a vote of confidence on Mr President and supported his anti-terrorism and anti-corruption war,” adding that, “We are urging him not to allow people to use his victory to foment trouble in the country so that Nigerians can have peace.”

The PDP Senator’s admiration for Buhari may also have stemmed from the President’s gesture toward him after he escaped death following his involvement in a 2015 road crash in Abuja.

He had said of Buhari’s gesture: “Let me place on record the support of President Buhari who did something extraordinary. The President called the hospital that I was in London. He called the hospital line, and said put me through to the Minority Leader of the Senate who is in your hospital. And they connected him. The room number was Room 215. And he spoke with me. He said, Akpabio we are praying for you. Insha Allah, it shall be well with you.”

There is also a narrative that the ruling party may be using Akpabio to undermine the PDP in the Senate and boost its own fortunes. Or is Akpabio, as alleged by the PDP, being threatened with EFCC prosecution over his stewardship in Akwa Ibom state, and therefore forced to capitulate to the APC? These appear to be the views of politicians in the opposition who have largely expressed shock at the move by the Senate Minority Leader.

Since reports emerged of his planned defection to the APC, Akpabio has equally come under the hammer of members of his party. Former Aviation Minister, Chief Femi Fani-Kayode, had in an opinion piece on Monday described the Minority Leader as a “coward” for allegedly not having the bravery of his convictions to “stand against tyranny when under fire”.

Fani-Kayode quoted Akpabio to have promised Buhari to make “those who think that they have politically grown to insult” him regret their actions.

Even though news of the Senate Minority Leader’s defection has been in the public domain for over 48 hours, the PDP has denied knowledge of his planned exit from the party. “The party is not aware. He has not written to the party to that effect,” the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Kola Ologbondiyan, told reporters yesterday.

The opposition party equally denied having foreknowledge of Akpabio’s visit to President Buhari in London over the weekend.

“He told us he was going to Germany and if he ended up in London, maybe, he had a technical stopover.

“The PDP has no issues with Akpabio whatsoever and the party will not respond to speculations of his readiness to defect. We have no notice of the said defection and all I can say now is that we will cross the bridge when we get there,” Ologbondiyan said.

Whether or not Senator Akpabio will indeed defect from the opposition party to ruling APC will come into the public glare in a matter of days. And the reason for this may also not take long to unfold.