COVID-19 Will Push 100 Million Into Extreme Poverty–World Bank

The negative impact of the Coronavirus pandemic on global economies could push a total of 71 million people into extreme poverty, the World Bank has said.

The World Bank said this in a report on the “Updated estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty.”

The report was authored by four Economists of the World Bank.

In April, the Bank had estimated that COVID-19 is pushing between 40 and 60 million into extreme poverty.

Since then, the epicenter of the pandemic had shifted from Europe and North America to the global south.

This had increased the death toll in low- and middle-income countries, induced longer shutdowns, and increased the economic costs of the pandemic.

As a result, the World Bank said it’s estimates of the impact of the virus on global poverty have shifted as well. 

Using the newly launched growth forecasts of June from the Global Economic Prospects, the Bank said
it estimates the impact of COVID-19 on poverty by comparing poverty projections that use the new GDP forecasts with poverty projections that use the GDP forecast before COVID-19 took off,.

It said, “Under the baseline scenario we estimate that COVID-19 will push 71 million into extreme poverty , measured at the international poverty line of $1.90 per day.

“With the downside scenario, this increases to 100 million. Projecting what happens in 2021 and beyond comes with even more uncertainty.

“The GEP forecasts expect that global economic output will increase by about four per cent in 2021, yet our poverty forecasts suggest that the number of people living in extreme poverty will be broadly unchanged between 2020 and 2021.

The report added that poor countries with high population growth rate such as Nigeria, India, and the Democratic Republic of Congo would be mostly affected.

It added, “A lot has to do with the growth rates of the countries with the most poor. Nigeria, India, and the Democratic Republic of Congo —three countries which we project are home to more than a third of the world’s poor—are predicted to have per capita growth rates in real GDP of –0.8 per cent, 2.1 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively.

“With population growth rates of 2.6 pet cent, one per cent and 3.1 per debt this is hardly enough for sustainable decreases in the poverty headcount.”