FAO Warns Persian Gulf Crisis Could Disrupt Global Food Security

The intensifying crisis in the Persian Gulf is disrupting global food systems and threatening agricultural production and food security, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has warned.

FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero told a United Nations daily press briefing that severe disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade corridor for energy, fertilizers and other commodities, are triggering one of the most abrupt shocks to global commodity flows in recent history.

“In just days, tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed by more than 90 percent,” Torero said, noting that the route normally carries around 20 million barrels of crude oil per day, roughly 35 percent of global crude flows, as well as a significant share of liquefied natural gas and fertilizer shipments.

Torero said the crisis is not just an energy shock but a systemic shock affecting food systems worldwide by damaging fertilizer supply chains and raising input costs for farmers. Fertilizer prices have already risen sharply, with nitrogen fertilizer costs spiking as natural gas prices soar, Torero added.

“Farmers are facing a dual cost shock, more expensive fertilizers alongside rising fuel costs affecting the entire agricultural value chain,” he said. FAO projections indicate global fertilizer prices could average 15 to 20 percent higher in the first half of 2026 if the crisis persists.

The duration of the disruption will determine the severity of its global impact, Torero said. If the situation is short lived, around one month, impacts may remain contained and markets could stabilise within about three months.

But a prolonged disruption of three months or longer could affect planting decisions and crop yields for key staples such as wheat, rice and maize.

FAO highlighted that countries dependent on fertilizer imports, including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India, several East African nations and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, could be particularly vulnerable to supply bottlenecks and high input costs.

Reduced fertilizer use and rising production costs could hit crop yields and food availability in many parts of the world.

Torero called for urgent international coordination to stabilise trade routes, provide emergency support for vulnerable import dependent nations, and strengthen agricultural resilience.

“We need to treat food systems with the same strategic importance as energy and transport sectors,” he said.

The FAO warning comes amid broader concerns that disruptions to energy, fertilizer and shipping networks linked to the Persian Gulf crisis are contributing to rising food prices and tight supply chains globally.

Analysts have noted that such shocks can have cascading effects on food security, especially in economies where agricultural input costs form a large share of farm production expenses.