FG Targets N530tn GDP, $58bn Reserves On Reform Gains

….Says Tax Revenue Hits N21.6tn, Exports Rise 30%

The Federal Government has projected that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will reach N530tn by the end of 2026, while foreign reserves are expected to rise to $58bn, as ongoing economic reforms continue to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve revenue generation and support growth across key productive sectors.

The projections were presented by the Special Adviser to the President on Economic Affairs, Dr. Tope Fasua, during a presentation titled “Economic Scorecard – Agriculture, Manufacturing, and Services” at the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) 2026 Mid-Year Economic Review and Outlook Conference held in Lagos on Wednesday, where he outlined the impact of the administration’s reform agenda on the nation’s economic performance.

According to Fasua, Nigeria’s economy has remained resilient despite a challenging global environment, maintaining an annual growth rate of 4.1 per cent, while inflation is projected to moderate to 15.93 per cent as policy reforms begin to yield results.

He disclosed that the country’s tax revenue surged by 49 per cent in the first half of 2026 to N21.6tn, compared with N14.27tn recorded during the corresponding period of 2025.

The significant increase, he said, was driven by sweeping fiscal reforms, the digitalisation of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), improvements in tax administration and the introduction of new levies across critical sectors of the economy.

Fasua noted that the administration’s reforms have also strengthened Nigeria’s external sector, with exports rising by 30 per cent while imports declined by a similar margin, contributing to 12 consecutive quarters of trade surpluses.

He added that Nigeria has sustained positive Balance of Payments positions in recent years, moving from a deficit of $3.34bn in 2023 to surpluses of $6.23 billion in 2024 and $4.23bn in 2025.

Highlighting the productive sectors, Fasua said agriculture, manufacturing and services now account for about 87 per cent of Nigeria’s economy, underscoring their strategic importance in driving sustainable growth, employment and industrialisation.

He explained that while the services sector remains the dominant contributor to economic output, the government is intensifying efforts to expand manufacturing capacity and modernise agriculture through mechanisation, value addition and support for small and medium-sized enterprises.

According to him, the reform programme extends beyond fiscal measures to include the removal of petrol subsidy, exchange rate recalibration, monetary policy adjustments, debt management reforms, customs reforms, tax reforms, local government autonomy and initiatives aimed at developing Nigeria’s solid minerals value chain, including lithium processing plants.

Fasua said these reforms are gradually improving the productive value of the naira, increasing fiscal resources available to states and local governments and laying the foundation for stronger long-term economic growth.

On the capital market, he said recent reforms have begun restoring international investor confidence, noting that S&P Dow Jones Indices has placed Nigeria on a 2027 watchlist for possible reclassification from Standalone to Frontier Market status. Similarly, FTSE Russell has placed Nigeria on a parallel watchlist while assessing the impact of the country’s transition to a T+1 settlement cycle.

He further highlighted several positive economic indicators, including successful bank recapitalisation that has attracted about ₦4tn in domestic capital, the emergence of four vehicle manufacturers and seven assemblers, rising local manufacturing activity and Nigeria’s growing position as a regional export hub.

The presentation also showcased an expanding list of Nigerian companies exporting manufactured goods across Africa, including food products, pharmaceuticals, household goods, automobiles, defence equipment, solar panels and financial technology solutions, reflecting the country’s increasing industrial capacity.

Despite the encouraging outlook, Fasua acknowledged that challenges remain, particularly around employment generation, inflation management, security, education, healthcare and environmental sustainability.

He stressed that continued policy consistency and increased domestic investment would be critical to sustaining the momentum of economic reforms.

He argued that while foreign direct investment remains important, Nigeria must increasingly leverage domestic capital and entrepreneurship to accelerate development, insisting that strengthening the real sectors of the economy remains the surest path to inclusive and sustainable growth.

The experts, who spoke at the conference, said recent fiscal, monetary and structural reforms have restored investor confidence, improved foreign exchange market stability and strengthened the country’s economic outlook despite lingering domestic and global risks.

They projected stronger economic growth in the second half of 2026, a more stable naira, improved external reserves and sustained momentum in Nigeria’s capital markets, while urging policymakers to maintain reform consistency and deepen private sector engagement.

Speaking at the conference, the President of the LCCI, Engr. Leye Kupoluyi described the gathering as a critical platform for evidence-based economic dialogue and policy engagement at a time when businesses are grappling with global uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions and fluctuating oil prices.

According to him, Nigeria’s economic future will depend not only on government policies but also on stronger partnerships between the public and private sectors.

Kupoluyi reaffirmed the Chamber’s commitment to advocating policies that improve the ease of doing business, strengthen micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), enhance industrial competitiveness, facilitate trade and accelerate digital transformation and innovation.

Delivering a presentation on “The Financial and Foreign Exchange Markets,” the Chief Economist of FirstBank Group, Chinwe Egwim, said Nigeria’s financial markets are sending increasingly positive and consistent signals, reflecting improved macroeconomic stability.

She noted that headline inflation moderated to 15.9 per cent in May, while gross external reserves rose to $51.45bn by the end of June 2026.

She also highlighted increased liquidity in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), narrowing gaps between official and parallel market exchange rates and improved investor sentiment that has lifted equities performance.

According to Egwim, Nigeria’s economy is expected to expand between 4.1 and 4.3 per cent in the second half of the year, supported by stronger oil production, growth in information and communications technology (ICT), financial services and continued policy reforms.

She projected the naira to trade within the N1,350 to N1,450 per dollar range, while external reserves are expected to remain between $50bn and $53bn, provided oil prices remain supportive and production averages between 1.7 million and 1.8 million barrels per day.

The FirstBank economist, however, cautioned that businesses should continue to adopt prudent financial management strategies as interest rates are expected to remain elevated while the Monetary Policy Committee maintains its focus on price stability.

She advised companies to prioritise investments with clear returns, strengthen treasury and liquidity management, incorporate inflation and exchange rate assumptions into pricing decisions and pursue disciplined capital allocation.

The expert noted that maintaining foreign exchange market reforms, strengthening fiscal discipline, improving infrastructure and creating a more competitive business environment would be critical to sustaining investor confidence.

They also called for stronger collaboration between the government and the private sector, saying inclusive and productivity-driven growth would depend on continuous reforms that support enterprise development, innovation, manufacturing competitiveness and export expansion.

They noted that although global economic uncertainties remain, Nigeria appears better positioned than in recent years to sustain macroeconomic stability and unlock stronger growth if ongoing reforms are implemented consistently and complemented by policies that improve the operating environment for businesses.