High Food Prices May Deepen Poverty In Nigeria, Other African Countries —FAO

Nigeria and Angola are projected to record some of the steepest food price increases in Africa in 2026, according to a new global food inflation outlook released by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), underscoring mounting cost-of-living pressures in import-dependent economies.

The FAO outlook, which analysed 160 countries and was reviewed by Visual Capitalist, ranks nations by projected year-on-year changes in food prices.

It shows sharp divergences across regions, with African economies dominating both the highest and lowest ends of the inflation spectrum.

While several advanced economies are forecast to see moderating or declining food prices in 2026, inflationary pressures are expected to remain concentrated in emerging and heavily import-dependent markets, particularly in Africa.

According to the report, countries such as Nigeria and Angola face heightened risks due to structural factors including heavy reliance on food imports, currency volatility, climate-related production shocks, and insecurity in key agricultural zones.

These vulnerabilities continue to amplify domestic food costs despite relative stabilisation in global commodity markets.

The FAO’s projections suggest that domestic variables, rather than global price movements alone, are increasingly shaping food inflation outcomes across the continent.

Agricultural productivity, exchange rate stability, logistics efficiency and macroeconomic management are emerging as decisive factors in determining household food costs.

However, not all African economies are expected to face rising prices. The FAO projects notable food price declines in several countries, including Niger (-18.1 per cent), Liberia (-7.4 per cent), Togo (-6.4 per cent), Morocco (-2.8 per cent), Chad (-2.6 per cent), and Zimbabwe (-1.7 per cent).

The projected declines are attributed to improved harvests, relative currency stability, easing supply bottlenecks, base-year statistical effects, and in some cases, policy interventions that have helped temper inflationary momentum.

The contrast between high- and low-inflation countries highlights deep structural differences within the continent.

Economies expected to experience easing food prices generally benefit from stronger domestic agricultural output, improved macroeconomic stability, and better-managed supply chains. In contrast, high-inflation countries remain exposed to import costs, exchange rate pressures, and climate vulnerabilities.

Analysts note that the divergence underscores a broader shift: food inflation in Africa is increasingly driven by domestic economic resilience and policy effectiveness rather than global commodity cycles alone.

For Nigeria in particular, where food accounts for a significant share of household consumption, sustained price increases could intensify pressure on real incomes and complicate broader inflation management efforts.

As 2026 approaches, the FAO outlook suggests a mixed picture for African households, with some likely to experience temporary relief, while others brace for continued cost pressures.

Sustaining price stability, experts say, will depend on strengthening agricultural productivity, improving supply chain efficiency, stabilising currencies, and implementing coordinated food security reforms.