Nigerian Economy: Time To Reset And Perform

The dramatic economic collapse that Nigeria has witnessed during this short period of President Muhammadu Buhari’s government is unprecedented and beyond belief. Considering that the economy was one of the president’s cardinal campaign issue, the pertinent question then becomes why did the administration allow the economy slip so carelessly?

A closer look indeed reveals that the rapid fall from a growth rate of about 6.5% in late 2014 into a recession in the first half of 2016 may be attributed to several key factors such as the collapse of the crude oil prices resulting in dwindling revenues, the protracted and bitter electioneering of 2015, the failure of Buhari to form a functioning government for close to six months after his swearing in, the fiscal hemorrhaging cause by the financing of the war against the Boko haram insurgency in the North east, the current low intensity economic warfare by the militants in the Niger Delta, the protracted and needless face off with the legislature over the passage of the 2016 Budget and related to this is the intractable feud with the same national assembly over the emergence of its leadership and the inordinate desire to effect a change thereof. All these contributed to the country sleep walking into a recession.

The appalling lack of judgment to urgently pay attention to the economy which was already showing sign of distress at the inception of this administration in preference to fighting political opponents more than anything accelerated it into a downward spiral from which it is yet to recover. This political dog fight code named fight against corruption blindsided the government on the imperative to quickly get a handle on the economy. That loss of momentum was indeed a turning point in the effective management of the nation’s economy, it created a policy vacuum that led potential investors and local businessmen to have to second guess the mind of the government through the suspect but highly celebrated body language of the president. All the while the Naira which was in a death dance with the Dollar and other foreign currencies was fuelling record inflation as collateral damage.

Presently, the economy is in grave danger and there is no clear policy direction out of the recession. The economic spiral is getting tighter and choking life out of businesses and citizens. All the low hanging fruits of the previous administration were simply ignored and overlooked with the exception of one or two projects such as the important bilaterally funded rail expansion project which was at its tail end, awaiting commissioning. Also policies that fitted into the Buhari administration vision or lack thereof of a highly controlled centrist, command and control economy such as the Treasury Single Account (TSA) and the Bank Verification Number (BVN) crucial in the fight against corruption were allowed to survive.

In the agricultural sector, the old ways of racketeering in fertilizer procurement are back. Policy such as the E-wallet for farmers which among other things helped them procure fertilizers, seedlings and implements with ease without the intervention of the ubiquitous middlemen were thrown out the widow and tarred with the corruption brush. Many other projects/policies of the past administration were ignominiously discarded and discontinued without an assessment of their impact on the nation’s economy. The most disheartening of the abandoned projects/policies were those geared towards youth empowerment. Critical social intervention programs under the sure P scheme were equally labeled corrupt and discarded with replacements yet to see the light of day. Many of these programs were highly acclaimed by international donor agencies.

All the aforementioned, coupled with lethargy on the part of the administration, the easy recourse to blame game and the dishing out of gratuitous excuses in lieu of proactive measures were critical in yanking the economy off the administration’s control.

The attendant ravages to the wellbeing of Nigerians is comparable only to countries devastated by wars. The rapid collapse of the Nigerian economy is thoroughly perplexing to the international business community. Without doubt, the economy is on uncharted territory since the advent of democracy. To many people it is not really the lopsided anti-corruption fight or even the economic squeeze that rankle but the despondency exhibited by those in authority, it is the lack of a clear path out of the recession that is worrying.

The fresh policy initiatives needed to contain the slide and revive growth are sorely lacking. What Nigeria does not need now is a rehash of old programs with doubtful benefit. The recent relaunch of the war against indiscipline (WAI) is to say the least diversionary. It is a kneejerk reaction by the administration aimed are distracting Nigerians. The evolving mantra of things having to get worst before getting better is akin to throwing in the towel on the economy. 

A quick reflection on the Nigerian economy since 1999 reveals that General Olusegun Obasanjo did a fairly good job on the ruined economy handed over by the military, he bequeathed a stable macro and debt free economy to his successor. During the President Yar’Adua’s administration, in spite of the fact that he was virtually hobbled by illness for most of his tenure, the economic outlook was also fairly stable and insulated from unnecessary shocks. He consolidated the banking reform started by his predecessor.

Yar’Adua budgets were passed within reasonable time and experienced a reasonable implementation within the Nigerian context, indeed his budgets gave fillip to the momentum that eventually led to the emergence of the Nigerian economy as the Number one in Africa during the administration of Goodluck Jonathan. Then the Nigerian economy was adjudged the 3rd fastest growing economy in the world. So the sudden decline from the lofty height where it has perched to the abyss of despair should be a case study for scholars. This is a moment of great challenge for the country, but within it are seeds of unprecedented opportunities to a discerning leadership. It is a rare time to reinvent the country. From such distress do great nations emerged.

The Buhari government must engage and galvanize the citizen into searching for enduring solutions. There may be no better time than now to begin a holistic review of Nigeria’s constitutional structure, which if done in a just and fair manner can stimulate and unleash the much vaunted Nigerian spirit of resilience and doggedness. The country’s extant constitution is anti-growth, it illegitimizes savings by government, it is consumerist in nature and mandates the sharing and spending of all revenues accruing to government. The diversification of the economy in an enduring manner can only be the outcome of a genuine constitutional reform.

The 1999 constitution is a corruption booster, it discourages production, innovation, and stifles the capacities for wealth creation that Nigerians are capable of as was the case in the first republic. As long as Nigerians persist in sharing and spending all revenues accruing to governments across the length and breadth of the country so long shall Nigeria continue in the unending cycles of economic boom and bust depending on the health of the global oil market.

The Buhari administration can seize the moment and lead a drive to remake the country and give it a new lease of life. A new paradigm consisting of a grand vision is needed imperatively. This is no time to wallow in arrogant triumphalism and see governance as a political conquest limited only to sharing booties and spoils of war. This is polarizing and breeds a mind set of “them and us” which is inimical to the collaboration needed for good governance.

How can Nigeria position itself to enhance its stake. That is the important question that circumstances has placed on the shoulders of this administration. The Buhari government must up its game, be forward looking and articulate policies that will position Nigeria to anticipate and seize the opportunities as they present themselves now and in the years ahead for the benefit of the nation.
Buhari has a duty to pull Nigeria out of this present economic morass, his duty is to manage the country’s plurality and bring out the daring attitude that Nigerians are known for. If he is able to rally the country behind a common agenda, then he would have succeeded in unchaining our national strength into achieving great feats. Let all excuses stop.

Offiong, a legal practitioner, and fellow Institute of Corporate Administration, is the Executive Director, The Hope Alive Foundation.
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