2023: Analysts Predict PDP Crisis May Clear Path For Obi’s Victory

The festering crisis in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, may prevent the party from winning the presidential election and create a clear path for the victory of Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, especially in the South-south, THE WHISTLER can report.

The former Anambra State governor was the vice presidential candidate of the PDP in 2019 presidential election. His defection in May to the Labour Party has changed the political calculation, especially with his surging popularity.

Obi, who is from the South-East zone of the country, is expected to sweep the zone with a voting population of approximately 10 million, according to the latest INEC data.

With governors of Enugu and Abia states among the opposition group in the PDP, Obi’s chances of a clean sweep is almost certainly guaranteed in the region that used to be the largest support base of the PDP.

In the South-South, Obi’s popularity has moved from lukewarm to cult following. The Obidient Movement, which emerged as the rallying point against the two established parties – the PDP and the ruling All Progressives Party, APC – has steadily penetrated the zone as demonstrated by the massive rallies held across the six states in the zone.

Obi’s chances look bright following the disruption of the PDP set up in the zone that accounts for the second largest voting population in the country behind the North-West.

The zone has 11,120,948 voters who collected their PVCs ahead of the 2019 election and 2,314,368 voters, who registered for their PVCs in the CVR that ended in July bringing the total number of voters to 13.4m.

With such a huge number, the schism in the PDP, which is being championed by the Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike, will likely work in Obi’s favour.

 The Rivers State governor on Monday set up the Rivers State governorship campaign council, removing the picture of the PDP’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.

With the Obidients Movement staging massive rallies across the zone and the low turn out at the PDP presidential campaign in Edo State over the weekend, stakeholders are of the opinion that Obi may not just win the zone but have over 50% of the total votes.

“I see Obi winning Rivers State, Cross Rivers State, Edo State and Bayelsa State,” former Federal House of Representatives aspirant, John Amachree, told THE WHISTLER.

He argued that, “Wike does not need to come out openly to support Peter Obi before people know where his support lies. As it stands, PDP will do poorly in the zone which is to Obi’s advantage.”

He explained that Obi will get more than 40% in Delta State and the same number in Akwa Ibom state despite having the Vice Presidential candidate and the Chairman of the PDP presidential campaign council, PCC from Delta and Akwa Ibom states respectively.

Ifeanyi Okowa is Delta State governor and Atiku’s running mate while Udom Emmanuel is the PCC Chairman and governor of Akwa Ibom State.

In the South-West, the PDP is also having serious trouble with major stakeholders like former governors of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose, and his counterpart in Ondo State, Segun Mimiko, as well as former National Vice Chairman, South, Olabode George, all opposing Atiku and have boycotted the PCC of the party.

They are part of the Wike camp opposing the continuous stay of PDP National Chairman, Iyorchia Ayu. With the camp taking part in the APC events, and boycotting the PDP presidential events, there are expectations that the party will do poorly  in the zone.

Lagos State, which accounts for the largest voting population in the country with 5, 531, 389 voters in 2019 and an additional 585,620, who registered for their PVCs ahead of the 2023 election, may decides who wins the South-West.

The presidential candidate of the APC, Bola Tinubu, was governor for 8 years in the state and is regarded as the ówner’ of Lagos. There are fears within the APC of the growing influence of Obi following expected votes from ENDSARS protesters, who are demanding for change in status quo.

Also, the high number of voters from South-East and South-South extractions in Lagos may increase the number of anti-status quo voters in the state.

The South-West is being seen as a zone where Obi can also make huge impact especially with reports emerging that he may likely win Lagos.

“Obi, no doubt, can win Lagos,” a political analyst, Simon Odey told THE WHISTLER. “If he wins Lagos, he stands a great chance of winning the entire South-West because the total number of people who turned out for their CVRs was a sign that they wanted to make a statement in the election.

He explained that “With Oyo also joining the anti-Atiku camp, it is expected that Obi will do well there. It is likely that Tinubu will win Ogun but the margin may not be high.

“Ekiti and Ondo too lack people who will mobilise for the PDP, so it is expected that Obi will do well because the organic supports as was seen during one-million-man matches is catching up with people.

“People want to make a statement because things are hard. Obi’s preaching resonates with them. They want answers.

“I think he, more than anyone else, is giving that to the people – his empathy, regular media appearances, tour of areas ravaged by natural disasters seen as failure of government, hoarding of palliatives, among others would work in his favour.”

In the North, Obi’s chances look high in the North-Central according to reports and opinions of stakeholders. The zone has also held various matches in support of the Labour Party candidate.

A state like Benue is expected to go the way of Obi because the governor, Samuel Ortom, is anti-Atiku, who is a member of the Wike camp.

He recently said if he was not in the PDP, “I will be supporting Peter Obi,” a statement that was greeted with  disapproval in the PDP quarters, and was seen as an indirect endorsement of the Labour Party candidate.

Also, the high number of people of southern extraction in Nasarawa is likely to work in his favour.

“How is Obi going to mobilise in North-Central? This is very crucial,” a member of the Obidient Movement, Aaliya Gambo explained.

“We are trying to match and match without Obi’s support. We are knocking on people’s doors, infiltrating groups and explaining to them why this 2023 election is crucial.

“So far, the response has been impressive. We expect a large turnout and Obi should win the North-Central,” she said.

Deji Adeyanju, Convener of Concerned Nigerians said, “Obi stands a better chance in the North Central than Tinubu and Atiku. These are two people Nigerians no longer trust but it all depends on Obi’s message to the people and level of mobilisation.

“That is where structure is key. How is he going to penetrate the North-West and North-East? He can work hard to get some votes in these two zones and win the South-East and South-South massively. With huge votes also from South-West and impressive votes from North Central, he stands a good chance.

“Don’t forget that Atiku, Tinubu and Kwankwaso (Rabiu Kwankwaso is of the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP) will fight for votes in North West and North-East.

“It means the votes from those two zones would be shared which leaves Obi as a clear favourite in the entire election,” he said.

Crucially, the 18.2 million voters as at 2019 and an additional 2.5 million people who registered for their PVCs make for a huge voting population that Obi must take a sizable share of if he must win the election.

Similarly, the North East had 10.5 million registered voters who were eligible to vote in 2019 and an additional 2.3 million who registered for new PVCs to vote in the 2023 elections.

The two zones account for 28.7 million people with PVCs ready to vote with an additional 4.8 million people who registered and are likely to collect their PVCs to vote in 2023.

With the PDP in turmoil and staging sporadic campaigns, expectations are high that Obi will profit from PDP’s misery to go ahead of Tinubu and Atiku-the two candidates regarded as frontliners.

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