Gov Makinde’s Re-Election Bid: Oyo Voters Walking A Tightrope This Saturday

The people of Oyo State will be going to vote this Saturday for their governorship and state assembly candidates just like 28 other states of the Federation.

But the chances of the incumbent governor, Seyi Makinde, is threatened following the overwhelming votes garnered by the opposition All Progressives Congress(APC) during the presidential election in the state.

The opposition APC won all 33 local government areas of the state as its garnered 449, 884 votes to beat Makinde’s Peoples Democratic Party which polled 182, 977 during the presidential election held on February 25th 2023.

Also, Labour Party got 99,110 votes, Accord came fourth with 39,514 votes while the NNPP scored 4,095 votes.

The APC also cleared all the senatorial seats and virtually all the House of Representatives seats in the state.

The outcome of the election has raised lot of concern for the incumbent party especially for the governorship and State House of Assembly race slated for March 11th 2023 as stakeholders from the party have gone back to the drawing board to strategise on how to secure re-election for Makinde.

Makinde’s situation is complicated. He was one of the G-5 Governors of the PDP who broke with the presidential candidate of their party and supported different candidates in the last election. Makinde also expressed support for the APC presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu,  before the election.

But it did not appear that there was any concrete pact with the APC, a development that has now put his re-election bid in serious danger, since the APC also has a governorship candidate many deem more popular.

Findings by THE WHISTLER  revealed that the camp of Governor Makinde has been unsettled by the clearing of the 33 LGs by the opposition and now feels that his re-election is hanging in the balance unlike before the poll when PDP boast in the state of winning the state.

PDP candidates who contested for National Assembly seats and lost are blaming Makinde for their loss, accusing him of selling them out to the APC , especially  Tinubu.

A source close to Makinde who confided in our reporter said the governor has commenced bridge-building and reconciliation moves to ensure that he is re-elected for second term as they have started reviewing the outcome of the last poll in the state.

A source who attended the meeting said the governor at the meeting took responsibility for the performance of the party at the Presidential and National Assembly elections, and  urged all stakeholders to go to the field and ensure victory for the PDP at the coming guber polls.

Other leading governorship candidates such as  Senator Teslim Folarin of the APC,  and Chief Adebayo Adelabu,  popularly called Penkelemes,  of the Accord Party, have also hit the ground running.

Permutations and strategic alliances have begun. The peculiarity of the state in governorship elections have shown that no single party can win the state,  which has no fewer than six political zones.

As at the time of filing the report, all the major candidates have vowed not to step down for any  candidate,  but alliance cannot be ruled out.

Also, various support groups, particularly those of the APC have come out at different times to debunk speculations that Governor Makinde contributed to the electoral victory of the APC in the presidential election.

The Labor Party candidate, Tawfik Akinwale,  has also taken to the social media to denounce report that he has agreed to step down for PDP or APC candidate or any other in the forthcoming elections. Although his party’s leadership, through the its chairman in the state, Mr. Sadiq Atayese, endorsed Makinde during a news conference at the party office, Molete, Ibadan on Sunday.

Akinwale vowed to pursue his ambition appealing to the people of the state to support him, just as they did for the LP presidential candidate in the last presidential election.

A key factor in the election is the point that many of the members of coalition parties that supported Governor Makinde to emerge victorious in the 2019 elections have left the coalition and  pitched their tent with the Accord Party candidate, Adelabu.

But, all staleholders in the system are all aware that drawing from experience and peculiarity of the state, political alignment and alliance against the sitting government holds the ace to unseating same.

Effort of Makinde to seek the support and collaboration of other parties seems to have yielded result when on Wednesday, the Conference of deregistered political parties and a group of individuals under the aegis of Elders Forum of the Inter-Party Advisory Council threw their weight behind his re-election bid.

Barely 48hours later the state chairman of IPAC, Apostle Dare Ojo, debunked the report, distancing himself and the group from the endorsement.

The Accord Party also in a statement has said about six political parties in the state have agreed to work with the party to ensure victory.

As it stands, only a coalition of political parties will determine the fate of who occupies the Agodi Government House come May 29, 2023. But most observers are unsure if the stakeholders will again work with Makinde for his re-election going by the seeming disagreement that led to the collapse of the coalition that brought him to office in 2019.

Speaking with a political analyst, Dr David Oloyede, he explained that, “with the victory secured by the presidential candidate of APC, Bola Tinubu in Oyo, chances of Makinde is brightened as he has sacrificed the presidential candidate of his party for another, hence, they will shift ground for him by voting him in the forthcoming election.

“Many supporters of APC will vote against Teslim Folarin who is their candidate because he is not loved by all. He will get sympathy votes from APC camp which is an advantage to his re-election.

“Another factor that will contribute to his victory is that the opposition is divided. Go and check political history, anytime the opposition is divided against the ruling party, it gives the incumbent an edge over them because their force is divided to pull the ruling party down.

“The best example is the outcome of presidential election, Peter Obi of Labour Party left PDP while Atiku Abubarkar is in PDP, another strong opposition, the New Nigeria Peoples Party(NNPP) of Rabiu Kwankwaso too was in contest against the APC, all these opposition parties divided their strength to fight the incumbent party, hence its led to the victory of Tinubu. If they had joined forces together, it will be an easy ride. For presidential election, it is a two-way thing, you must also note that Yoruba agenda speak volume and the seemingly opposition of Makinde against Atiku.

“In Oyo State, all those contesting against PDP, are forces that could be reckon with, the political strength of both Adelabu and Folarin can’t be undermine so they will split the will of people who may want to vote against Makinde but Makinde is likely to win on Saturday.”

Checks by THE WHISTLER revealed that Makinde has some strongholds where he’s expected to get huge votes such as Ona Ara and Ajia LGs where he delivered many projects especially the Airport and Navy roads.

Ojoo, Moniya and Akinyele LGAs may vote massively for him because he secured the bus terminal for them including rehabilitation of roads like Ibadan-Iseyin, Sasa Market and Akinyele Market.

Similarly, the LGAs in Ogbomosho will compensate him with votes because of sole ownership of LAUTECH and Ogbomoso-Iseyin and Under-G roads. Other projects in LGAs that will help his re-election are, Iseyin-Ibadan road, Iseyin-Oyo road, Iseyin-Ogbomoso road, and renovation of Iseyin city hall in Iseyin LGA.

Chucks Okoji, a political communication expert, explained that,  “In Saki West, Oyo East, Oyo West, Ibadan South, West, Oluyole  LGAs, Makinde has contributed to infrastructure development which is a score card for his administration. These have made him to be a popular candidate in the state because of his consciousness in the mind of the residents of the state.

“Okeogun LGA is traditionally PDP including Iwajowa LGA but all these council decided to vote for Tinubu because of Yoruba Agenda and directive of Makinde ahead of the election.

“Apart from the 11 councils in Ibadan which have huge voting population, Ogbomoso, Ibarapa and Okeogun can also deliver huge votes for Makinde because he’s worked considerably there.”

He added that factors that made him to be a popular candidate are partial lockdown during COVID, his efforts to let students write WAEC during COVID, consistent payment of workers’ salaries & retirees’ pensions (and the 10k Christmas bonus last December for them) among others.

However, another analyst, Barrister Adenitan Akinola, held a different view on the re-election of Makinde in Oyo, saying the woeful performance of the PDP during the presidential election is a reflection that Makinde had lost the party structure but only running a populist government.

The National Assembly candidates of PDP who lost their ticket to APC in that election will work against the victory of Makinde in the governorship election.

He said, “I can tell you categorically that some of them are aligning with either Accord party or APC to ensure that Makinde is defeated. Many of those that are pitching their support against Makinde are strong forces in Oyo State. There will be a lot of protest votes against Makinde which are sponsored by bad governance, politics and tribe.”

Recalled that Makinde speaking over the weekend explained reason for emergence of Tinubu in Oyo state, saying, “I supported fairness, justice and equity. I supported a united Nigeria, a Nigeria that gives opportunity to every part of this country.”

He said democracy was about people expressing themselves through the ballot, saying a lot of people in Oyo voted who they wanted.

However, the 372,000 members of Bola Tinubu support groups in the state  threw their weight behind the re-election bid of the state governor, Makinde.

The groups which include the Southerner for Tinubu BAT Democracy; Yoruba Campaign for BAT and Tinubu Campaign Movement made the decision known during their solidarity visit to the residence of the deputy governor, Adebayo Lawal, in Ibadan, the state capital.

The National Coordinator, Adebayo Moronsole,  said, Makinde should continue in office for the improved life of the people of the state, adding the Southwest for Bola Ahmed Tinubu coalition groups are pledging their support for him and his deputy.