IMF Cuts FG’s Growth Projection, Says Economy To Grow By 3%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its forecast for Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product growth rate for 2024 from 3.1 per cent projected in October to 3 per cent.

The multilateral institution made this position in its revised World Economic Outlook for 2024 and 2025.

The IMF GDP projection falls below the 3.76 per cent economic growth forecast in the 2024 fiscal budget approved by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Tinubu had said in November 2023 that “We expect the economy to grow by a minimum of 3.76 per cent, above the forecasted world average. Inflation is expected to moderate to 21.4 per cent in 2024.”

But with the projection by IMF, the economy may grow below federal government forecast by 0.76 per cent in 2024.

Recall that the institution had projected that Nigeria’s GDP will grow by 3.1 per cent this year before its decision to revise the growth projection.

The IMF also said Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy will grow by 3.8 per cent in 2024, up by 0.2 per cent and 4.1 per cent in 2025.

IMF said, “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to rise from an estimated 3.3 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.1 per cent in 2025, as the negative effects of earlier weather shocks subside, and supply issues gradually improve.

“The downward revision for 2024 of 0.2 per cent point from October 2023 mainly reflects a weaker projection for South Africa on account of increasing logistical constraints, including those in the transportation sector, on economic activity.”

The global economy was projected at 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that in the October 2023 World Economic Outlook (WEO).

The upward revision was on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging markets and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China, the IMF said.