IMF Links Nigeria’s Economic Rise To Reforms, Projects $334bn GDP

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to rise to about $334bn in 2026, positioning the country as Africa’s third-largest economy ahead of Algeria.

According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Report, Nigeria, with an estimated GDP of about $285bn in 2025, ranked fourth on the continent behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria.

However, the Fund said sustained economic reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions could lift Nigeria above Algeria, whose GDP is projected at about $284bn.

The IMF attributed Nigeria’s anticipated economic rise to increased crude oil production, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and the impact of ongoing reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange-rate liberalisation and fiscal adjustments.

These measures, the Fund noted, are expected to support medium-term growth despite short-term inflationary pressures.

The projections show South Africa retaining its position as Africa’s largest economy with a GDP of $443bn in 2026, followed by Egypt at $399bn. Algeria, currently third, is expected to slip behind Nigeria as its output lags.

In 2025, South Africa led the continent with a GDP of $426bn, followed by Egypt at $349bn, while Algeria ranked third with about $288bn.

Nigeria’s economic ranking has fluctuated in recent years, largely due to currency devaluations, GDP rebasing exercises and broader macroeconomic challenges affecting major African economies.

Nonetheless, the IMF said current indicators point to improved resilience and a stronger growth outlook.

Earlier this year, the Fund revised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast upward to 4.4 per cent from 4.2 per cent. The World Bank also raised its projection for the country’s growth to 4.4 per cent in 2026, up from 3.7 per cent forecast in mid-2025.

Beyond continental rankings, the IMF projected Nigeria to contribute 1.5 per cent to global real GDP growth in 2026, placing the country as the sixth-highest contributor worldwide and among the global top 10.

This positions Nigeria ahead of several advanced and emerging economies, including Germany at 0.9 per cent and Brazil at about 1.5 per cent.

China is expected to remain the largest contributor to global growth with 26.6 per cent, followed by India at 17.0 per cent, the United States at 9.9 per cent, Indonesia at 3.8 per cent and Türkiye at 2.2 per cent.

China and India are projected to jointly drive 43.6 per cent of total global economic growth, while the Asia-Pacific region is expected to account for nearly half of global growth, reflecting sustained momentum across the region.

The IMF said Nigeria’s projected rise reflects its growing role as a key growth driver among emerging economies and underscores the country’s resilience in the face of ongoing economic headwinds.