IMF, World Bank, Others Warn Of Global Energy Shock

The International Energy Agency, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank Group have warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East is triggering a major global energy and economic shock, with far-reaching consequences for the global economy.

The institutions disclosed this in a joint statement issued after a high-level coordination meeting held on Monday to assess the impact of the conflict.

They noted that the crisis is already driving up energy and commodity prices, with widespread but uneven effects, particularly on energy-importing and low-income countries.
Highlighting the severity of the situation, the organisations said:

“As we noted earlier this month, the impact of the war is substantial, global, and highly asymmetric, disproportionately affecting energy importers, in particular low-income countries.”
“The shock has led to higher oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, triggering concerns about food security and job losses as well. Some oil and gas producers in the Middle East have also seen a dramatic loss of export revenue.”
“The situation remains very uncertain, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is yet to normalize.”

“Even after a resumption of regular shipping flows through the Strait, it will take time for global supplies of key commodities to move back towards their pre-conflict levels—and fuel and fertilizer prices may remain high for a prolonged period given the damage to infrastructure.”

The institutions said supply disruptions are expected to affect multiple sectors, including energy, food, and manufacturing.

They further noted that the crisis is already impacting livelihoods and economic stability across regions. Rising energy and fertilizer costs are increasing pressure on food production and prices, while some Middle Eastern oil and gas producers are experiencing significant export revenue losses.

In addition, the conflict has led to the displacement of people, job losses, and a slowdown in travel and tourism activities, with recovery likely to be gradual due to infrastructure damage and ongoing supply chain disruptions.

According to the institutions, the full scale and duration of the impact remain uncertain.

The meeting forms part of a coordination framework established in early April to address the economic fallout from the conflict. The IEA, IMF, and World Bank Group said the initiative aims to align policy responses and strengthen support mechanisms for affected countries.

They added that disruptions to global supply chains—particularly in energy and key commodities—have been exacerbated by challenges in shipping through critical routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying existing vulnerabilities in global energy and food systems.

The institutions said they are working closely to support impacted economies through coordinated policy advice and financial assistance where necessary. The IMF and World Bank may provide financial support to countries facing severe economic shocks.

Further assessments are expected in upcoming reports, including the IEA Oil Market Report and the IMF World Economic Outlook, as the institutions continue to monitor developments and coordinate efforts to support global economic stability.

Meanwhile, Nigeria is intensifying efforts to secure global support amid the unfolding crisis. Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, is ramping up engagement with international partners as the country navigates rising oil revenues alongside mounting inflation pressures triggered by the conflict.

In a media brief ahead of the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings 2026 in Washington DC, the Federal Ministry of Finance outlined key policy priorities to guide Nigeria’s engagement with global stakeholders.