Nigeria’s Petrol Consumption Plunges 25% As Stock Sufficiency Improves – NMDPRA

Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption plunged by 25 per cent in July 2026, even as the country’s stock sufficiency improved, indicating a stronger inventory buffer amid weaker domestic demand, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The regulator, in its July 2026 Factsheet, said Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) consumption fell to an average of 35.7 million litres per day (lpd), from 47.4 million lpd recorded in June.
Domestic PMS supply also declined significantly during the month, falling 21 percent month-on-month to 25.8 million lpd from 32.5 million lpd in June.

Despite the decline in supply and consumption, petrol stock sufficiency increased to 22.4 days in July from 19.7 days in the previous month, representing a 14 percent improvement in the period.

The increase in inventory cover suggests that available petrol stocks could sustain domestic demand for a longer period, providing a stronger buffer against potential supply disruptions despite the weaker inflow of products during the month.

The NMDPRA data showed that total daily PMS receipts declined by 10 percent to 45.5 million lpd in July from 50.6 million lpd in June. The decline was largely attributed to the reduction in domestic supply, which fell by 6.7 million lpd during the period.

However, the decline in domestic supply was partly offset by higher petrol imports. PMS imports increased by 9 percent to 19.7 million lpd in July from 18.1 million lpd in June.
The figures indicate that while overall petrol inflows weakened during the month, imports continued to play a significant role in supporting the domestic market as local supply declined.

The July data also showed mixed trends across other major petroleum products, with diesel receipts increasing significantly while demand for aviation fuel declined sharply.

Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as diesel, recorded a 46 percent increase in daily receipts, rising to 23.6 million lpd in July from 16.2 million lpd in June.
The increase was driven largely by the return of diesel imports, which rose from zero in June to 7.9 million lpd in July.

Domestic AGO supply, however, declined by 3 percent to 15.7 million lpd from 16.2 million lpd.
Despite the increase in receipts, AGO consumption fell by 8 percent to 14.7 million lpd from 16 million lpd in June.

Diesel stock sufficiency also improved significantly, rising 25 percent to 46.5 days in July from 37.1 days in June.

The increase indicates a substantial improvement in the volume of diesel available relative to prevailing consumption levels.

Aviation Turbine Kerosene (ATK), used by the aviation sector, recorded a much sharper contraction in demand. ATK consumption fell by 41 percent to 1.7 million lpd in July from 2.9 million lpd in June.

ATK receipts also declined by 24 percent to 1.9 million lpd from 2.5 million lpd over the same period.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG), however, bucked the broader downward trend in petroleum product consumption. LPG consumption increased by 7 per cent to 4.4 million litres per day from 4.1 million lpd in June.

The increase in LPG consumption was supported by stronger domestic supply, which rose 22 percent to 4.4 kilotonnes per day from 3.6 kilotonnes per day.
LPG receipts also increased by 4 per. cent to 5.3 kilotonnes per day from 5.1 kilotonnes per day.

In contrast, LPG imports declined by 40 percent to 0.9 kilotonnes per day from 1.5 kilotonnes per day.

The NMDPRA figures further showed that domestic gas supply weakened during the month, declining by 8 percent to 4.723 billion cubic feet per day from 5.116 billion cubic feet per day in June.

The regulator also provided details of production, domestic distribution and exports from the Dangote Refinery during July, highlighting the refinery’s growing role in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market.

The Dangote Refinery produced an average of 25.9 million litres of PMS per day during the month, while domestic receipts stood at 25.8 million lpd.

The refinery also exported 3.4 million lpd of PMS and ended July with a closing petrol stock of 446.1 million litres.

For AGO, the refinery’s production averaged 19.1 million lpd, compared with domestic receipts of 15.7 million lpd and exports of 11 million lpd. Its closing diesel stock stood at 162.3 million litres.

The refinery also produced an average of 15.6 million lpd of ATK in July. Domestic receipts stood at 1.9 million lpd, while exports reached 11.6 million lpd, leaving a closing stock of 217.4 million litres.

The July petroleum market data point to a month of weaker domestic demand across several key products, particularly petrol and aviation fuel, alongside improved inventory positions for petrol and diesel.

The combination of lower consumption and stronger stock cover could provide some short-term resilience in the downstream market, although the decline in domestic petrol supply and total receipts underscores the importance of maintaining adequate inflows to prevent renewed supply pressures.

The data also highlight the increasing significance of domestic refining capacity, particularly the Dangote Refinery, in supplying refined petroleum products to the Nigerian market while simultaneously serving export markets.