OPINION: Still On The Tinubu/ Shettima Ticket

In the past six months, one issue that keeps coming up in political discourse in Nigeria within the social media and mainstream media is the alleged plot to have President Tinubu change his running mate as we march towards 2027 elections. The presidency and the All Progressives Congress (APC) leadership has since denied it. The fact that the issue refuses to go away shows that there is no smoke without fire. It is either the issue has been brought before the president for consideration or he is contemplating on considering this option.

Before going further, it is important to understand the issues that led to the selection of Senator Kashim Shettima, former banker and governor Borno state in the 2023 elections. The Tinubu camp was looking for a vice president in the North who is cerebral, articulate and acceptable to Northern voters from North west ,North East and North Central. More importantly, has good will from the highly influential Muslim clerics across Northern Nigeria. These clerics are so powerful that they can destroy what was built six decades ago in two minutes just using the microphone of their mosque. Kashim Shettima meets all these criteria having been able to transform his movement from the banking hall to the murky waters of Nigerian politics in less than two decades. This is because of his humility, intellectual sagacity and ability to build a network of friends across political, ethnic or religious divide. The last reason was that the Tinubu campaign met its stiffest opposition from the Northern political establishment and there was need to find a candidate that will placate the zone.

Furthermore, the choice of Shettima in 2023 was not based on religion, but good political calculations needed for APC to retain power at the center after eight years of Late Muhammadu Buhari. It is an undisputed fact that the Northern bloc in Nigerian polity has a very strong voter population which can be a good route to getting the two thirds of votes cast in the 36 states as an INEC requirement.

However, before the dust could settle on his choice as running mate, fifth columnists and enemies of Nigeria masquerading as opposition politicians and some ethnic minorities called the choice a Muslim Muslim ticket. This many analysts see as inconsequential as Tinubu despite being a Muslim is married to Oluremi, a pastor of the Redeemed Church for over two decades.

Now that this issue is coming up again, some people allegedly close to the President’s religious diversities. It is not clear if this group have the First lady`s blessing, but her silence on this matter raises some concern. This is because this group went to the extent of naming some individuals known have her ears as possible alternatives.

Secondly, majority of those championing this cause happen to come from a section of the North Central geopolitical zone or what some called Middle Belt. This so-called Middle belt agitators are a group of individuals coming from some states in the North Central who have for decades dissociated themselves from the geopolitical zone trying to carve a different ethnic and religious identity for themselves. This clamor by this group has undermined peace and unity in Plateau, Adamawa, Taraba, Nassarawa, Benue for over twenty years. In fact, it is responsible for the indigene/settler or ethno religious crisis that has taken Plateau fifty years backward and put it on the world map for the wrong reasons.

It is interesting to note that this group of agitators hiding under a religious or ethnic agenda have nothing to offer President Tinubu, Nigeria or the party. The consequences of this act will be tearing the APC apart along religious line which runs contrary to the ideals of the party`s founding fathers. These founding fathers see it as a political platform for progressives regardless of ethnicity or religion in Nigeria.

Secondly, it will make the President Tinubu to seek re- election for a second term with a divided house that a convergence of opposition of politicians can easily dislodge in the 2027 elections.

To make matters worse, substituting Shettima with a Christian minority will give the impression that President Tinubu has a religious agenda.

This can anger the far north who in the last two years are angry that President Tinubu is a nominal Muslim. This will worsen his rating in the eyes of the electorate who see his inability to end the security challenge in the Northwest, Northeast and North Central as incompetence and fear of tackling the scourge of religion in Nigeria.

In an ideal situation, these religious and ethnic agitators are not people who should be allowed to dwell in civilized societies because their views erode unity and the relative peace enjoyed by Nigerians.

However, the Hausa proverb which says “ arhan gabas shine yake sa karuwa sallan Mallaha” This simply means that the fact democracy guarantees freedom of expression is never a license for some to undermine national security.

Nigeria today is challenged economically, politically and even religiously, it cannot afford another civil war or religious disturbances as witnessed in the past. Hence, President Tinubu needs to tread with caution. The unity and peace of this country is greater than his party or personal ambition. He needs to make Nigeria better or worse leave things as they are if he has no additional value to add.

The strength of maintaining the Shettima/Tinubu ticket in 2027 has the advantage of keeping the Northern base of the APC intact. Anything short of this is inviting anarchy and heating up the political barometer unnecessarily which can derail the little gains recorded by the Tinubu administration.

On the other hand, the humility and loyalty of Shettima to his principal despite the humiliation meted out to him by some government and party officials in the past remains an asset Tinubu must not lose. Shettima has never complained in public or private about his sidelining in some government decision. The first criteria for a Vice president remain loyalty as well as good political base to add value to his principal. This is something Shettima has in abundance.

In addition, it is better to deal with the devil you know than choosing an angel you don’t know. Replacing Shettima as Vice President in 2027 remains a dangerous political gamble that has serious implication for the party and Nigeria in general.

This is because stirring up religious sensitivities at this time in the nation`s history will rupture the fragile religious harmony the country enjoys.
The silence of Kashim Shettima over this scheme in the last one year does not connote weakness. This is maturity and good cultural values at play as a well-bred Kanuri man. His belief in providence and blind loyalty to his principal does not connote that his teeming supporters across Nigeria are not aware of sinister plan to create a feud between him and his principal in the last two years. The party needs to know that any decision it takes on this matter will make or mar the party. Thus, it is our prayer that good reasoning and the future of Nigeria should be placed above any other interest. This is because you will never value what you have until you lose it.

-Olusegun Olayinka, a public analyst lives in Kano.