Otedola Projects Naira To Trade Below N1,000/$ As Dangote Refinery Hits Full Capacity

Billionaire business man,Femi Otedola has projected that the naira could appreciate to trade below N1,000 per dollar before the end of the year, citing the Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s attainment of full operational capacity as a major catalyst for improved foreign exchange stability.

In a post published on X on Thursday, Otedola described the refinery’s ramp-up to full production as a turning point for Nigeria’s foreign exchange outlook, expressing optimism that the long-standing pressure on the naira could ease significantly as domestic refining gathers momentum.

According to him, the refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily is expected to substantially reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported refined petroleum products, a major source of demand for foreign exchange over the years.

“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly,” Otedola wrote. “I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below N1,000/$1 before year end is increasingly within reach.”

Nigeria has historically relied on imported petroleum products despite being a major crude oil producer, a structural imbalance that has contributed to persistent foreign exchange demand and periodic currency volatility.

Analysts have consistently argued that large-scale local refining could help conserve billions of dollars annually in fuel import bills, thereby improving external reserves and supporting currency stability.

Otedola congratulated Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, on what he described as a transformational milestone not only for Nigeria but for the African continent.

He noted that the refinery’s full-capacity operations represent a significant step toward energy self-sufficiency and broader industrial growth.

Beyond the current achievement, Otedola disclosed that Dangote has commenced an additional $12bn expansion project aimed at increasing the refinery’s capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day.

The expansion, he said, will further deepen local value addition and strengthen Nigeria’s position in the global energy market.

The expansion plan also includes the production of 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB), both critical industrial inputs.

Polypropylene is widely used in plastics and packaging, while LAB is a key raw material in the manufacture of household and industrial detergents.

Industry observers note that increased local production of these petrochemical inputs could reduce Nigeria’s import dependence in the manufacturing sector, lower production costs for local industries, and further reduce pressure on foreign exchange demand.

By integrating refining and petrochemical production at scale, the Dangote complex is expected to generate multiplier effects across transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors, potentially strengthening the country’s balance of payments position over time.

“Aliko is not stopping here,” Otedola stated, noting that work on the expansion has already commenced.
Market analysts say the extent to which the naira strengthens will depend on complementary factors, including crude oil production levels, foreign portfolio inflows, fiscal discipline, and monetary policy coordination.

However, they acknowledge that sustained domestic refining at scale could represent one of the most significant structural shifts in Nigeria’s external sector in decades.