Can 2023 Presidential Election Be Compromised? Here Is What Experts, Insiders Say

The effectiveness of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) is what will determine the credibility of the 2023 election.

On the 14th of September, 2022, the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) raised alarm over an alleged plot to compromise the integrity of the 2023 elections, despite the introduction of BVAS, with the upload of fake registrants into the voter register.

In its response, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) did not explicitly deny the allegations, instead, it said it was still cleaning up the register with the use of the Automated Biometric Identification System (ABIS).

Earlier, the commission itself had announced an attempt to hack into its Results Viewing iRev Portal during the last Ekiti and Osun elections.

These barrages of issues had begun to cast aspersions on the integrity and sturdiness of the new electoral system, as INEC moves to digitize the voting process.

To separate the facts from the fiction, THE WHISTLER spoke to a number of industry insiders including two former Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs), a member of INEC’s ICT team, and two cybersecurity experts to ascertain if and how the BVAS and other electronic voting systems can be compromised.

There Are Saboteurs, Vested Interests Within INEC – Former RECs

Professor Samuel Egwu, a former INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner for Niger State told THE WHISTLER that the allegations of compromise of the voters’ register are weighty issues but shouldn’t affect people’s trust in INEC.

He noted that there are saboteurs within the system who will attempt to compromise the electronic system for personal gain.

“These are very weighty issues and the best response should come from INEC headquarters but I don’t think these issues will entirely affect people’s belief in INEC because, from the scientific point of view of the evidence, you can’t use the case of only Imo to demonstrate what you want to argue. I would have loved it if they added two or three other states or even five to increase the sample size.

“Also, as much as INEC is trying to improve the electoral process, there are saboteurs who are trying to circumvent the process by inventing new ways to manipulate the election. As INEC is trying to go forward there are people that are making conscious attempts to be a clog in the wheel of progress.

“There are vested interests to undermine the process and these vested interests are not even only outside INEC, there are even elements within INEC who, depending on the interests they are trying to promote, will try to do that (compromise the electoral register), and that is why all the stakeholders have to be vigilant because democracy is about using the strength of institutions and the voice of citizens to prevent untoward behaviour, so you can’t wish away these realities, but what is critical at the end of the day is that we are aware of this possibilities and try to perfect the process.

Another former REC who spoke with this website on the condition of anonymity said politicians interfere a lot with the affairs of INEC by planting certain persons who will do their bidding in the commission.

“Of course, there are internal collaborators in INEC, politicians place persons who they believe will serve their interests in the commission. Remember the appointment into some of these sensitive positions in INEC are done by politicians. Even now there is a lot of problems with the current nominees to be Resident Electoral Commissioners with some of them accused of being partisan, and even people that are already in the system can be compromised by these desperate politicians and their agents, so these are the issues, there is a lot of political interference,” he said

“Also, INEC officials are not ghosts, they are ordinary Nigerians like you and me and they have interests and sentiments like every other person, it could be tribal, ethnic or even religious. So, some might have a candidate they want election results to favour, so when such candidate approaches them, it’s easy to sell their conscience because they already want such candidate to win.

“So, some of them don’t mind compromising the voter register to achieve their aims because most people in this country have lost their conscience,” he added.

It’s Difficult To Rig Under New System, Although Ad-Hoc Staff Can Cause Problems – INEC Source

A highly placed source in the ICT department of INEC confided in this website, that with some of the provisions of the new electoral act, it will be difficult to compromise the 2023 elections.

According to him, off-season elections in Ekiti and Osun states were largely satisfactory, although he pointed out that there were minor infractions.

He, however, noted that the elections can still be compromised by ad-hoc staff if they ditch BVAS entirely.

“They could compromise even from the polling unit, they can use manual and abandon the BVAS system, during collation, the Ratech (Registration Area Technical Support) and the collation officer are supposed to work together and as you come in with the results, the RATECH will check the details of accreditation.

“There is a counter that captures the biometric information and it has to tally with ballot papers. If the counter records 500 voter information during accreditation, then there must be 500 ballots cast (both valid and rejected votes).

“Results from any polling unit that does not use BVAS will be outrightly cancelled. The ad-hoc staff have been properly trained, but a lot of times, it is the ad-hoc staff that cause problems, numerous times they say that their BVAS machines did not work, which is a lie because when you call the RATECH and he gets there, he will see that the BVAS is working optimally, no issues with it, which means it’s a deliberate act not to use it.

“And even this allegations with the voters’ register in Imo, I’m sure it’s one of our people in the ICT department that carried it out just to justify the monies they’ve received from all these politicians, because they know full well, that the names are going to be removed from the register during cleaning.

“There is another integrity test that will be done to detect irregularities. Then we will also display the entire register for claims and objections. Indigenes in every community will see the register and if they see anything unusual, they will definitely report it. Then another cleaner register will come out which will be given to political parties.”

Asked if Nigerians can expect the elections to be substantially transparent, the INEC source said;

“I honestly don’t know. It is the national commissioners that know whatever they are scheming, no one knows if they have been compromised by government because he who pays the piper dictates the tune. But so far so good, if you look at Osun, if you look at Ekiti, it was credible and transparent. It was the will of the people.

“I don’t think anybody can manipulate this 2023 elections, even if it will be manipulated, it will be done in collaboration with one of our ICT people in INEC and it will be some of this junior or ad-hoc staff.

“Also, the world can follow the elections now, because of the result viewing portal that we launched, once the presiding officer calculates the result of a polling unit, he will immediately snap that result and upload it to the portal. So, anybody can monitor the results,” he added.

No System Is 100% Secure – Cybersecurity Expert

Hamzah Lateef, a cybersecurity expert and security engineer at CyberPlural told THE WHISTLER that INEC needs to investigate the breach and put corrective measures in place to prevent future occurrences.

He also harped on the need for the commission to train its employees, especially ad-hoc staff on how to manage and use electronic systems effectively.

“It is important for INEC to investigate, vulnerability is an inherent weakness in a system that may be known or unknown to even the manufacturer of the system, that means if a professional or somebody who is an outsider identifies such weakness, they might decide to take advantage of it, so if INEC wants to get the best out of this issue, they should look at it positively and ascertain if the compromise truly happened to the system, if it is confirmed, then they need to further investigate how it happened.Is there a backdoor? Is there a vulnerability that exists that they don’t know of? These are some of the questions they need to ask themselves.

“This will allow them to put a control in place to correct whatever flaw or weakness before the elections. Also, they will find whoever is responsible. Even the phones and other gadgets we use, the manufacturers release updates regularly to fix problems, because no system is 100% secure. So, you don’t finish working on systems like this and sit back because where your skills stop is where other people’s skills start.” He said.

Lateef also spoke on the social engineering aspect of system breaches, a broad range of malicious activities accomplished through human interactions.

“When we look at components that make up cybersecurity today, it’s not just about technology, it’s not just about processes, we have the people factor. So, there is a need for people to be trained and retrained, especially ad-hoc staff. Also, there must be different levels of access and there should be a ‘big eye’ ensuring that everybody is doing what they are permitted to do. It is also important for INEC to sensitize all their employees especially those with privileged access to the systems. They also need to put security measures that will protect them against social engineering because they can be targets of phishing attacks.”

Blockchain Deployment Can Make Electoral Processes More Secure – Expert

Blockchain security researcher, Prosper Onah, told THE WHISTLER that Nigeria’s electoral system can be further strengthened with the deployment of a blockchain system to foster the transparency and immutability of the process.

Onah who described blockchain as a game changer in web security said, “Nigeria can benefit greatly by deploying blockchain into the electoral system because blockchain can make the process more transparent since it can be accessed on a public ledger.

“Also, because the system is decentralized and distributed, it is more secure, so the chances of a breach are quite low.”

“For instance, once a vote is registered on the Blockchain network, it cannot be altered or deleted, ensuring the integrity of the election process.”

Onah advised the electoral INEC to devote resources to building a standard Blockchain-based electoral system.