Kaduna 2027: NDC Risks Losing Election Before Polls

There are elections political parties lose to their opponents, and there are battles they lose within their own ranks. Five months before the 2027 governorship election in Kaduna State, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) appears to be struggling with the latter.

Two politicians, Barrister Mohammed Sani Abbas and former Senator Danjuma La’ah, are both laying claim to the party’s governorship ticket. Yet, rather than presenting a united front, different factions of the party have publicly questioned and rejected the claims of both men.

The contradiction is striking. With less than six months to the election, a party hoping to challenge its rivals should ordinarily be preparing its campaign structure and selling its candidate to voters. Instead, the NDC is still battling over who should carry its flag.

A Ticket Claimed Twice, Recognised By No One

The party’s Kaduna State Chairman, Evangelist Mordecai Sunday Ibrahim, recently attempted to clarify the situation.

Speaking at a press conference in Kaduna alongside ten other party officials, Ibrahim rejected Abbas’ claim that he had emerged as the NDC governorship candidate.

According to him, no valid primary had produced Abbas as the party’s candidate.

He also presented a letter dated August 7 and addressed to the party’s National Chairman, with a copy sent to the Resident Electoral Commissioner of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Kaduna. The letter, he alleged, showed that Abbas had withdrawn from the governorship race.

Ibrahim further cited Section 31 of the Electoral Act 2026, arguing that the disagreement among the aspirants meant the party would have to conduct a substitution primary.

He therefore urged Kaduna voters to disregard competing claims to the ticket until the party completed what he described as the appropriate process.

Abbas Says He Won. La’ah’s Camp Says Prove It

Abbas, however, has maintained that he legitimately secured the ticket.

According to him, he obtained his nomination form within the stipulated period, underwent screening and participated in a primary election conducted by the party’s committee, which subsequently declared him the winner.

He has also questioned the basis of La’ah’s claim to the ticket, asking why the former senator should be recognised as the candidate if he did not undergo screening or participate in a primary election.

But La’ah’s camp has rejected Abbas’ account.

In a rejoinder issued by his media team, the former senator’s campaign challenged Abbas to provide documentary evidence that the purported primary actually took place.

The campaign maintained that no valid primary was conducted and pointed to its own nomination documents and evidence of payment to the party.

Rather than presenting La’ah as merely another aspirant, his campaign has portrayed him as a unifying candidate capable of bringing together Kaduna’s northern, central and southern constituencies.

That argument, however, is being made against the backdrop of a party that is itself struggling to establish unity.

The National Leadership Adds To The Confusion

The confusion has not been confined to the state chapter.

The NDC’s Deputy National Chairman, North, Alhaji Sidi Abdul Bomi, recently disowned a document circulating on social media purporting to show La’ah as the party’s governorship candidate.

Bomi described the document as fake and said it did not emanate from the party.

The development has further complicated the controversy, with different levels of the party issuing conflicting positions over the identity of its candidate.

For a party seeking to convince voters that it is prepared to govern Kaduna, such public disagreements present a serious political problem.

Rather than projecting stability and preparedness, the party’s internal disputes risk becoming the defining feature of its campaign before the campaign has even properly begun.

How The Crisis Began

The roots of the dispute can be traced to May 29, when the NDC reportedly failed to conduct its scheduled governorship primary.

In the aftermath, the name of Ibrahim was reportedly affirmed and forwarded to INEC as a placeholder.

That arrangement was rejected by some Southern Kaduna stakeholders within the party, who described it as an attempt to impose a candidate without a properly conducted primary.

The Southern Kaduna chairman, James Sule, subsequently called for Ibrahim to step aside and allow all aspirants to participate in a transparent primary.

Sule warned that failure to resolve the issue could damage the party’s standing in southern Kaduna, an area the NDC considers one of its political strongholds.

The disagreement therefore goes beyond the rivalry between Abbas and La’ah. It raises broader questions about internal democracy, the authority of the party’s state and national structures, and the process through which candidates are selected.

Not An Isolated Case: The NDC’s Kano Front

Kaduna is not the only state where the NDC is struggling with internal disagreements.

In Kano, the party has faced a separate dispute involving its founding members and the Kwankwasiyya Movement bloc associated with Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso.

The disagreement reportedly centres on a proposed 60-40 arrangement for the sharing of tickets and party executive positions. The dispute has triggered threats of mass defections and changes to some candidate arrangements after the party had already released its list.

Political analyst Dr Kabiru Sa’id Sufi, a lecturer at the Kano State College of Arts, Science and Remedial Studies, has warned that the party’s ability to resolve its internal disputes would determine whether it consolidates its growing political influence or loses the advantage it has gained.

Oyo State has also recorded internal tensions, with disagreements between the state chairman and secretary over allegations of unilateral decision-making and inadequate consultation.

The pattern suggests that the NDC’s challenge is not limited to one state or one candidate. As the 2027 election approaches, its ability to manage competing interests within its ranks may prove just as important as its ability to challenge rival parties.

Other political parties are experiencing similar difficulties.

In Delta State, Senator Ned Nwoko has challenged the outcome of the APC senatorial primary for Delta North through the party’s internal mechanisms and the courts after former governor Ifeanyi Okowa was declared the winner.

In Abia, divisions within the APC have also produced a prolonged dispute between the state working committee and a faction aligned with Senator Orji Uzor Kalu.

Across the political landscape, disputed primaries, competing claims and interventions by national party leaders have become recurring features of the preparations for 2027.

History’s Warning: What Happened To Zamfara

For the NDC in Kaduna, the consequences of failing to resolve its candidate dispute can be illustrated by the experience of Zamfara State in 2019.

A dispute between rival APC factions prevented the party from conducting valid primaries ahead of the election.

The APC nevertheless went on to win the governorship and all the legislative seats it contested in the state.

But the victory did not survive legal scrutiny.

The Supreme Court later nullified the party’s electoral victories on the grounds that the APC had failed to produce valid candidates for the election.

The PDP, which had come second, subsequently benefited from the ruling.

The Zamfara experience remains one of Nigeria’s clearest reminders that winning an election at the polling units may not be enough if a party fails to comply with the rules governing the nomination of its candidates.

For Kaduna’s NDC, the lesson is straightforward: an unresolved nomination dispute could eventually become much more costly than the internal battle itself.

A Crowded, Unforgiving Field

The NDC’s internal crisis is unfolding in an increasingly competitive political environment.

Incumbent Governor Uba Sani is entering the 2027 contest with the advantages of incumbency and an expanding political structure. The APC has also attracted prominent figures, including former governor Ramalan Yero and former senators Shehu Sani and Suleiman Hunkuyi.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is also positioning itself as a major opposition platform, with Isah Ashiru, a two-time governorship contender, among the prominent figures associated with the contest.

The ADC, however, has also faced its own controversies over the nomination process.

With campaigns scheduled to begin on September 9, time is running out for the NDC to resolve its internal disagreements and present a clear candidate to the electorate.

Every day spent fighting over the ticket is another day its rivals can spend building their campaigns.

What Is At Stake

Whoever eventually emerges as the NDC’s candidate will inherit a difficult task.

Beyond campaigning against the incumbent and other opposition candidates, the eventual flag bearer will have to unite a party whose internal divisions have already become public.

The bigger question is therefore not simply whether Abbas or La’ah will emerge with the ticket.

It is whether the NDC can resolve the dispute through a process credible enough to convince its own members and the wider electorate that the party is capable of managing competing interests.

Zamfara offers a warning of what can happen when nomination disputes remain unresolved until after election day. Kano and Oyo demonstrate that the NDC’s internal challenges extend beyond Kaduna.

For now, the party’s biggest opponent may not be the APC, ADC or any other political platform.

It is itself.

Until the NDC settles, transparently and conclusively, the question of who will carry its flag, Kaduna voters may continue to see a political party more occupied with fighting over its candidacy than presenting a coherent alternative for governing the state.