US-Iran War Cuts Nigeria’s PMS Stock Sufficiency To 17 Days

…Despite Price Hike, Petrol Consumption Rises 8% To 51.1m Litres

….Diesel Stock Sufficiency Drops By 16 Days

Nigeria’s petrol supply buffer tightened further in April 2026, with stock sufficiency for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) dropping to 17.7 days from 21.2 days in March, as global oil market disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict continued to reverberate across import-dependent economies.

Latest data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority shows that the decline in stock levels occurred despite a notable increase in domestic supply, highlighting the intensity of demand pressures in Africa’s largest oil-consuming nation.

Petrol consumption rose by eight per cent month-on-month to 51.1 million litres per day (MLD) in April, up from 47.3 MLD recorded in March.

The increase came even as pump prices remained elevated, suggesting that demand for fuel remains largely inelastic due to Nigeria’s heavy reliance on petrol for transportation and power generation.

However, total PMS supply, though improved, remained below consumption levels.

Supply increased from 40.1 MLD in March to 44.4 MLD in April, driven primarily by higher domestic refining output.

A breakdown of the figures shows that local production rose significantly from 34.2 MLD in March to 40.7 MLD in April, while imports declined sharply from 5.9 MLD to 3.7 MLD within the same period.

The Dangote Refinery accounted for the bulk of domestic supply, reinforcing its growing dominance in Nigeria’s downstream market.

The surge in local output reflects improved operational efficiency and reduced dependence on imported petrol, although the shortfall relative to consumption continues to pressure inventories.

Crude oil supply to domestic refineries, however, declined slightly from 0.674 million barrels per day in March to 0.612 million barrels per day in April, raising concerns about feedstock adequacy for sustained refining operations.

The supply-demand imbalance has had a direct impact on stock levels, with PMS sufficiency falling to 17.7 days—well below comfortable thresholds for a market of Nigeria’s size.

Diesel (Automotive Gas Oil, AGO) also witnessed tightening conditions.

Although total diesel supply remained relatively stable at 10.2 MLD in April compared to 10.3 MLD in March, stock sufficiency plunged from 55.4 days to 39.0 days—a drop of over two weeks.

The composition of diesel supply shifted markedly during the period. Domestic supply more than doubled from 3.9 MLD to 8.5 MLD, while imports fell sharply from 6.4 MLD to 1.7 MLD, indicating a transition toward local sourcing.

Despite this shift, diesel consumption increased significantly from 14.5 MLD in March to 17.3 MLD in April, further tightening available reserves and raising concerns for industries that depend heavily on the product for power and logistics.

Aviation fuel (ATK) recorded moderate growth, with supply rising from 1.7 MLD to 2.6 MLD, while consumption increased from 2.1 to 2.5 (in KT/D), reflecting gradual recovery in aviation activities.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) supply dipped slightly from 4.7 KT/D to 4.5 KT/D, even as consumption declined from 5.1 KT/D to 4.8 KT/D.

Notably, LPG imports dropped to zero in April, with domestic production fully accounting for supply, a development analysts say could signal improved local capacity.

Meanwhile, domestic gas supply improved from 4.888 billion standard cubic feet per day (Bscf/d) in March to 5.142 Bscf/d in April, offering some relief to the power and industrial sectors.

Analysts say the broader picture points to a system under strain, where rising demand consistently outpaces supply improvements.

The data clearly shows that while domestic refining is improving, it is still not sufficient to meet demand.

The geopolitical environment has compounded these challenges. Tensions in the Middle East have contributed to volatility in global oil prices and supply chains, affecting import costs and planning.

For Nigeria, which is in transition from import dependence to local refining, such disruptions expose the fragility of its supply architecture.

Experts warn that the growing reliance on a single major refinery introduces concentration risks, particularly in times of operational or geopolitical uncertainty.

They also point to structural bottlenecks including inadequate storage infrastructure, distribution inefficiencies, and limited strategic reserves.

With PMS consumption continuing to rise and stock sufficiency trending downward, stakeholders are calling for urgent measures to strengthen supply resilience.

These include boosting refining capacity, ensuring steady crude supply to domestic plants, expanding storage facilities, and improving logistics across the distribution chain.

ENDS