Insecurity In The Southeast: Economic Implications And PISE-P As A Game Changer

It is as clear as crystal that the Southeast region is experiencing a breakdown in all the indicators that define a strong economy. The insecurity that has engulfed the region for two years and counting has created a dysfunctional environment, with the socio-economic life of the area heading towards a cliff. If this downward trend is not stopped, many sectors of the economy, where the region previously held a commanding status, may soon become obsolete.

For instance, it has been reported that the Southeast region of the country used to generate between N655.38 billion and N3.77 trillion daily before the outbreak of the ongoing crisis. However, due to the current warring conditions in the region, the economy has suffered a massive loss of earnings in 2022 alone. If you multiply these figures by two, you can see the devastating impact of the crises on the area’s economy, which has also worsened the plight of the region’s hard-working people who depend on daily earnings. Similarly, according to background checks conducted by the PISE-P and its partners, the total figures lost due to the senseless conflict in the Southeast between 2021 and 2023 are estimated to be a staggering N5.4 trillion. The same data also revealed that between 2021 and 2023, a total of 164 police stations were attacked, 14 INEC buildings were destroyed, and 390,000 out-of-school children were produced in the region, with 20 percent of learning opportunities lost.

The casualty level is better imagined than shopping for the numbers. According to Okoreaffia Okafo of the Federal Polytechnic Nnekedi Owerri, “Also closely related to this is the rampant incidence of ruthless kidnappings and abductions that are carried out for ransom but sometimes end up deadly and uncovered” In terms of investments, there is a significant lack of interest because no rational person would invest in a crisis-ridden area.

A total of six sectors mostly impacted are Infrastructure, Governance, Education Security, Economy, and Transportation. As most observers succinctly put it, the constant conflicts and social disorder over there have created severe psychological, political, and socio-economic dysfunctions, thus destroying the pride of its earlier commanding record as the most peaceful and economically progressive region of the country, using Nigeria’s poverty Index distribution stats as the measuring tape.

“Southeast inhabitants face terrorization due to the chaos and violence associated with the activities of Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), the sit-at-home order and its related issues including kidnappings, farmers/herders clashes and other forms of criminality that cripple daily life and interactions in the area; culminating to a state of uncertainty, fear and low morale occasioned by the fierce gun battles and reprisal attacks between government forces, agitators and unknown clandestine groups. This precarious situation significantly paralyses socio-economic endeavours in this domain of a people characteristic of renowned economic enterprise, and valued contributor, to Nigeria’s economic growth”, says Okafo.

As businesses go downhill business owners count their losses, leading most of them to lay off their staff or cut down monthly pay of staff to cushion the effect of the profit blowoffs. Experts say that the work layoffs worsened the high employment rate of Southeast which according to Dataphyte had four out of 10 not having jobs as of 2020, before the conflict That figure has jumped up geometrically.

Painting deeper pictures of the impacts of the social disorder and criminalities on businesses in the Southeast, Nosa Igbinadorlor in his article titled “Southeast Bleeds N4trn in 2years over insecurity, Sita-at-home Protests” published in the Business Day newspaper on December 13, 2022, captured further impacts. According to him, “The violence and protests in the region have also increased the cost-of-service delivery for businesses. Businesses trying to keep up with customers outside the Region have to include logistics and bear the risk, but only big businesses can afford this. As a strategy for keeping their customers, some companies have to add delivery services. They organize logistic vehicles and transport the goods to their customers’ destinations. Interstate transporters break long trips of 11-12 hours into two and continue in the morning to avoid arriving in the South East after the curfew commences. Traders of perishable goods like vegetables, fruits, and other farm products complained of increased spoilage due to the extended off-market days,”

The obvious reasons for the insecurity are well-known facts across the media space. But tracing the origin, the Director, of the Rule of Law and Accountability Advocacy Centre (RULAAC), Okechukwu Nwanguma in his presentation at a summit organised in partnership with Action Group on Free Civil Space, held in Awka on July 29, 2023, blamed Buhari administration for the mismanagement of the renewed agitation for Biafra by members of IPOB.  He said: “President Buhari’s shoot-at-sight order in 2021 and the former IGP Alkali Baba’s directive to police officers in the South-East to go after IPOB and kill them and not bother about complaints of human rights violations prompted a reckless security crackdown across the South-East states. In the pretext of going after IPOB, several innocent people particularly young and middle-aged men and women have been arbitrarily arrested, detained in inhumane conditions, tortured, killed, and disappeared based, in many cases, on unsubstantiated allegations of being IPOB/ESN members”.

Continuing, Nwanguma stressed that: “Renewed separatist agitation which was reinvigorated and championed by IPOB since 2012 was soon to go awry, degenerating into outright criminality and has now turned the South-East – which the proponents had purported to liberate – into a blood-soaked wasteland”

Pacifists want a total end to the conflict and restoration of normalcy in the affairs of the Southeast. The formation of PISE-P by the legislators of the 10^th National Assembly from the Southeast led by the Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Rt Hon, Benjamin Kalu, is an inevitable path to walk in the search for enduring solutions to the stubborn conflagration. The project seeks sustainable resolutions and the use of its seven pillars of Education, Agriculture, Infrastructure, Employment, Entertainment, Culture, and Tourism as scaffolds for rebuilding the region.

However, the success of this delightful project is predicated on going underground to identify key stakeholders. The starting point is embarking on extensive consultation with key figures in the Southeast and friends of the Southeast on how to reach out to all the combatants for constructive dialogue and amnesty offers. History has shown that most conflicts were resolved at the table and not on the battlefield, hence the case of Southeast cannot be different. PISE-P’s decision to preach for a non-kinetic approach is spot on, considering that military force has not yielded good results and may not do so.  

It is believed that the release of Nnamdi Kanu could be a vital step towards resolving the ongoing conflict in the region. This is because it would prevent Mr. Samuel Ekpa from using Kanu’s detention as an excuse to call for sit-at-home orders and use his armed gangs to enforce them. The sit-at-home order has been a contentious issue in the conflict, and resolving Kanu’s detention could be a significant milestone toward peace.

The administration of President Armed Bola Tinubu could help resolve the conflict and set a new course in the Southeast by extending an olive branch to the people. This could include releasing the IPOB leader and granting amnesty and pardons to non-state combatants. Additionally, providing infrastructure and demilitarizing the region by removing most of the military and police checkpoints along the roads in Southeast would be crucial. All of these measures combined could prove to be the game-changer.

Mr Charles Ozoemena wrote from Abuja

Disclaimer: This article is entirely the opinion of the writer and does not represent the views of The Whistler.